海牙战略研究中心-驾驭瓶颈的伟大游戏：评估地缘政治风险，推进荷兰和欧洲在数字价值链中的战略不可或缺性（英）-2024.3-92页_1010kb

Navigating the Great Game of Chokepoints: Summary

This report, authored by Joris Teer, Abe de Ruijtr, and Michel Rademaker, examines how geopolitical competition leverages digital value chain dependencies, with a focus on the Netherlands and the European Union. It assesses risks from strategic dependencies and provides recommendations for enhancing European strategic indispensability. Below is a summary of key findings and recommendations.

Context and Introduction

• The global economy is increasingly intertwined in value chains, but geopolitical competition (e.g., between the US, China, and Russia) has eroded norms governing trade, leading to "weaponized interdependence."
• States manipulate supply chains (e.g., through sanctions or export controls) to exert influence, deterring or compelling actions, as seen in recent U.S. and Chinese actions targeting European reliance on their digital technologies.
• Digital domains (e.g., semiconductors, cloud services, 5G) are critical, and disruptions here can have severe impacts on security, health, and digital sovereignty.

Strategic Dependencies and Risks

• Strategic dependencies occur when reliance on a good or service threatens core interests (e.g., physical/financial security or digital transition). Dependencies are categorized into:
  • Level-one: Disruption affects security, safety, or health directly.
  • Level-two: Disruption hinders digital transition but not core interests.
• Risk framework: A tool to assess impact (severity of disruption) and probability (likelihood of unwillingness or inability to supply), incorporating indicators like criticality, demand projection, and geopolitical factors (e.g., relations with supplier countries, threats to supply lines).
• Key risks include supply shocks from weaponized interdependence, which exploits network vulnerabilities and central nodes for coercion, potentially causing harm through cyberattacks, espionage, or demand-dependent revenue loss.

Broader Digital Risks

• Beyond core dependencies, digital risks encompass:
  • Cyber-attacks and critical infrastructure vulnerabilities, allowing states to intercept information or disable systems.
  • Industrial espionage, undermining technological edges and strategic autonomy.
  • Monopolistic practices by private firms, enabling geopolitical influence through unilateral decisions.
  • Demand-related shocks, such as export bans, disrupting markets and business operations.

Dutch and European Strengths

• The Netherlands has leadership in digital technologies like lithography (ASML), photonics, and research in quantum computing and AI, with strong foundational research.
• Challenges include weak valorization of research and reliance on energy-intensive imports, limiting full exploitation of these strengths.

Policy Implications and Recommendations

• Enhance strategic indispensability by focusing on R&D, innovation, and domestic production to reduce vulnerabilities.
• Recommendations:
  1. Align basic research with societal needs and promote international STEM cooperation.
  2. Strengthen valorization by providing incentives for startups, industry partnerships, and skilled labor attraction.
  3. Improve the business climate through targeted policies, such as prioritizing strategic regions and offering tax benefits.
  4. Cooperate with allies to deter weaponization through industrial diplomacy and coordinated policies.
• These actions aim to build geopolitical shock resistance and capitalize on digital advancements.

Conclusion

Nations must proactively navigate digital chokepoints to ensure resilience and influence in an era of intensifying great power competition. By fostering strategic dependencies that enhance indispensability and mitigating risks, the Netherlands and EU can safeguard their interests and contribute to a stable global digital economy.