战略与国际研究中心-Economic-Stability-and-Instability-in-the-New-Middle-East_-Part-II_60页_268kb

Economic Stability and Instability in the New Middle East Summary

Core Content

This document, authored by Anthony H. Cordesman, examines the economic and military dynamics of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, focusing on the impact of oil prices, debt performance, and productivity trends on economic stability.

Debt Performance

• Mixed Debt Trends: Total debt in the MENA region has risen, but the cost of principal repayments has decreased.
• Debt Management: The control of public debt has often come at the expense of policies that discourage investment in the region.
• Country-Specific Debt Status: There is a wide variation in debt status among countries. Some, like Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, and Sudan, are severely indebted, while others such as Bahrain, Libya, and Oman are less indebted.
• Income Classification: Low-income countries have an annual income of $725 or less, while high-income countries (Kuwait, Qatar, UAE) have an income of $8,956 or more.

Productivity Trends

• Declining Productivity: The Middle East was the only region in the world to experience a net drop in productivity from 1960-1990, with an average annual decline of about 6%.
• Comparison with Other Regions: In contrast, East Asian productivity rose by 54%, and South Asian productivity also increased.
• Factors Affecting Productivity: The region has failed to develop a strong competitive private sector, lacks productivity gains from women in the workforce, has impractical education systems, and has over-reliance on government employment and foreign labor.
• Recent Improvements: Although there has been some improvement in the last decade, the Middle East still lags behind East Asia in productivity growth, with only about 20% of its growth rate.

Oil Shock and Economic Impact

• Oil Shock Analysis: The "Oil Shock" from 1997 to the present has not caused an economic crisis, but a structural crisis has been building since 1986.
• Impact of Oil Prices: Oil economies have under-performed compared to other Middle Eastern countries due to lack of diversification, welfare orientation, population growth, and over-dependence on foreign labor.
• Revenue Fluctuations: Oil revenues for major countries in the region have significantly declined due to falling oil prices, affecting fiscal balances and terms of trade.
• Future Projections: The Petroleum Finance Institute projects a range of future oil revenues, showing a potential decline in oil revenues for most countries in the region by 2020.

Military Trends

• High Military Spending: The Middle East remains the most militarized region in the world, with military expenditures as a percentage of GNP significantly higher than other regions.
• Declining Burden: The burden of military spending has decreased over time, with military expenditures accounting for about half the burden on GNP compared to the Cold War era.
• Government Spending: Military expenditures have steadily dropped as a percentage of total government spending since the Gulf War.
• Arms Imports: Arms imports have decreased as a percentage of total imports.
• Population and Military: The percentage of the total population under arms has steadily declined.
• Statism and Mismanagement: Government domination of the economy and mismanagement of civil spending are key issues affecting the region.

Key Trends and Comparisons

• Oil Production and Revenue: The document provides historical and projected data on oil production and revenue for various countries in the Middle East and North Africa, highlighting the impact of oil price fluctuations.
• Comparative Analysis: The Middle East and North Africa have lower GDP growth compared to diversified exporters, and their economies are more vulnerable to oil price changes.
• Entitlements Problem: Countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait face significant budget pressures due to the high cost of entitlements and the economic structure dependent on oil.

Conclusion

The Middle East and North Africa region faces a mix of economic stability and instability. While some countries have managed their debt effectively, others are severely indebted. The region's productivity has lagged behind other parts of the world, and its economies remain heavily dependent on oil. The impact of oil price fluctuations has been significant, leading to structural economic challenges. Additionally, the region's high military spending, although decreasing in relative terms, continues to be a major economic burden. The document emphasizes the need for economic diversification and better governance to address these challenges.