2022-01-06-瑞士信贷集团-可持续增长有望在可能不平衡的2022年实现回报_80页_2mb

Summary of U.S. Medical Supplies & Devices Analysis

Core Content

This report from Credit Suisse provides an in-depth analysis of the U.S. Medical Supplies & Devices (MS&D) sector, highlighting key investment opportunities and growth drivers for 2022. The firm remains bullish on the sector, particularly on durable growth and disruptive innovation names, which are expected to outperform the S&P 500. The report emphasizes the impact of staffing challenges, the recovery of elective procedures, and the role of digital health and robotic surgery in driving long-term value creation.

Main Points

Sector Outlook

• Durable Growth: Companies with strong, sustainable growth are better positioned to withstand reduced growth rates and benefit from margin expansion.
• Outpatient vs. Inpatient: Outpatient and Ambulatory Surgical Center (ASC) exposure is expected to perform better than inpatient elective procedures due to lower staffing burdens.
• Digital Health: Emerging segments like AI/ML, digital surgery, and wearable monitors are set to accelerate growth and expand utilization.
• Structural Heart: TAVR (Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement) continues to be a key growth driver, with expectations of long-term outperformance, especially for Edwards Lifesciences (EW).
• M&A Activity: Strategic acquisitions and investments are seen as important for growth, particularly in SMID-cap companies.

Key Company Catalysts

• Edwards Lifesciences (EW): TAVR growth is expected to continue, with management guidance suggesting potential upward revisions in sales. The company's strong market share and long-term growth prospects support a target price of $144.
• Stryker (SYK): Expansion in digital surgery, particularly with the MAKO robotic platform and the WMGI acquisition, is anticipated to drive significant share gains and upside. The sum-of-parts valuation analysis suggests a target price of $367.
• Boston Scientific (BSX): Despite competition from Amulet, the company is expected to sustain 6-8% growth through its diverse pipeline. The stock is projected to reach $54, with upside potential.
• Globus Medical (GMED): Strong execution and margin discipline are expected to continue, with the company poised to gain market share in robotic spine surgery. The target price is $95.
• Zimmer Biomet (ZBH): Turnaround story is at risk due to high exposure to elective procedures and potential competition. It is viewed as less attractive compared to other names.

Investor Sentiment and Risks

• Macro Risks: Staffing challenges and uncertainty around government stimulus may favor a 'stock pickers' approach.
• Sector Rotation: Companies like ABT, JNJ, MDT, and BAX are likely to benefit from rotation into the MS&D sector, while consumer-driven rallies may lead to rotation away.
• Disruptive Growth: Companies with strong disruptive growth profiles, such as EW, SYK, BSX, GMED, and ABT, are expected to outperform.

Valuation Insights

Coverage Universe at a Glance

Key Sector Debates

• Elective Volumes: Expected to return to pre-pandemic levels, but staffing challenges may cap capacity.
• MS&D Outperformance: Likely due to non-discretionary growth and strong organic growth profiles.
• Digital Health: AI/ML, digital surgery, and wearable monitors are expected to support broader utilization and disrupt traditional approaches.
• TAVR Growth: Debate over sustainability, but fundamentals suggest continued outperformance.
• M&A Activity: Expected to continue as a key growth driver, especially for SMID-cap firms.

Disruptive Growth Opportunities

• Structural Heart (SH): Expected to grow significantly, with potential for $9 billion in the global market by 2025.
• Robotic Surgery (RS): Increasing adoption and expansion, particularly in spine and shoulder procedures.
• Diabetes: Emerging as a key growth area, with new revenue opportunities expected.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of durable growth and disruptive innovation in the MS&D sector. Companies like EW, SYK, BSX, GMED, and others are highlighted as key opportunities due to their strong growth profiles, strategic initiatives, and valuation potential. Investors are advised to focus on these names, particularly in the context of sector rotation and macroeconomic risks.