20211031-IEA-Global_Fuel_Economy_Initiative_2021_195页_30mb

The IEA Global Fuel Economy Initiative's 2021 working paper analyzes the performance of light-duty vehicle fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 to 2019. Global progress in fuel efficiency slowed significantly in 2017-2019, with advancements offset by increased vehicle size, weight, and power—especially in SUVs—which raised average fuel consumption. Electric vehicles (notably battery electric) and hybrids contributed slightly to emissions reductions, but policy changes and regulatory frameworks are insufficient to meet ambitious climate targets.

Key challenges include low stringency in some regions' fuel economy standards and minimal adoption of efficiency-enhancing technologies in internal combustion engines, requiring urgent policy action. Recommendations call for aggressive fuel economy standards (e.g., Corporate Average Fuel Economy) linked to zero-emission vehicle sales targets, eliminating fossil fuel subsidies, improving monitoring to bridge rated vs. real-world performance gaps, and incentivizing fuel-efficient consumer choices.

The analysis highlights the critical need to accelerate well-to-tank and tank-to-wheel decarbonization through renewable energy integration for electricity and hydrogen supply. The IEA proposes three increasingly stringent scenarios: Stated Policies (low ambition), Announced Pledges (aligning with climate goals), and Net Zero (demonstrating innovative measures).

Life-cycle analysis shows battery electric vehicles offer the lowest well-to-wheel emissions among powertrains, reinforcing their potential to drive emissions reductions. Weak policies in some markets risk global market distortion, underscoring the need for international cooperation to address used vehicle trade and ensure equitable advancements in fuel efficiency.