世界发展银行-Global-Trade-Watch-2018-_-Trade-Amid-Tensions_38页_960kb

2018 Global Trade Watch Summary

Core Content

The Global Trade Watch 2018 report analyzes the impact of trade tensions, particularly between the United States and China, on global trade flows and economic growth. It highlights the slowdown in trade growth, the rise in trade protectionism, and the shifting trade patterns caused by tariffs and retaliatory measures.

Main Points

• Global Trade Growth:

  • Global trade growth slowed to 3.8% in 2018 from 5.4% in 2017.
  • Trade volumes showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter of 2019.
  • The U.S. tariff increases in May 2019 and China's retaliatory measures could further impact trade outlook.

• Trade Policy Developments:

  • Trade protectionism increased significantly, with restrictive measures affecting 3.8% of world merchandise trade in 2018, nearly three times the share in post-crisis years.
  • The U.S.-China trade tensions were the primary driver of protectionist policies, with 70% of U.S. exports to China and almost half of U.S. imports from China affected by tariffs.
  • Positive developments included regional trade agreements like the African Continental Free Trade Area and the USMCA.

• Trade Flows and Patterns:

  • U.S. imports from China fell by 8% in 2018, while U.S. imports from China of targeted goods increased by 9% due to strong domestic demand.
  • In Q1 2019, tariff-affected imports from China to the U.S. dropped by 40% year-on-year, and U.S. imports from China fell by 24%.
  • Trade diversion occurred as the U.S. and China redirected trade to other countries like Brazil, India, Malaysia, Mexico, and Vietnam.
  • Soybean exports from Brazil to China increased by $8 billion (40%) in 2018 due to U.S.-China tariffs.

• Impact on Prices and Trade:

  • Tariffs had a high pass-through to import prices, with border prices rising in the U.S. and China for some products.
  • "Stickier" goods (e.g., electrical connectors) were less affected by tariffs, while easily substitutable goods (e.g., hard-disk-drive units) saw significant declines.
  • If tariffs persist, global value chains could be disrupted, with U.S. imports of intermediate goods from China expected to fall by over 40%.

• Effects on Global Poverty:

  • Trade tensions have muted effects on global poverty but could push up to 30.7 million people below the $5.50/day poverty line if tensions intensify.
  • Developing countries (excluding China) would bear about half of the global income loss in a worst-case scenario.

• Implications for the U.S. and China:

  • U.S. trade deficit with China decreased by 12% in Q1 2019 compared to the same period in 2018.
  • U.S. exports to China fell by 7.4% in 2018 and 19% in Q1 2019, with the largest declines in lists 1 and 2.
  • China's exports to the U.S. declined by 30% in Q4 2018 and 8.5% in Q1 2019, with list 3 products showing resilience in Q4 2018.

• Long-Term Concerns:

  • Trade tensions could lead to long-term disruptions in global value chains, especially for intermediate goods.
  • A multilateral approach and WTO reforms are recommended to resolve trade disputes and avoid adverse economic impacts.

Key Information

• U.S. Tariffs:

  • Affecting $300 billion of U.S. imports in 2018.
  • List 1 (July): Tariffs on solar panels and washing machines led to negative import growth.
  • List 2 (August): Tariffs on steel and aluminum caused declines in U.S. exports.
  • List 3 (September): Tariffs on $200 billion of goods led to declines in U.S. imports from China.

• China's Response:

  • Imposed tariffs on $100 billion of U.S. imports in 2018.
  • Retaliatory tariffs affected 6.5% of total U.S. goods exports in 2018.
  • China's exports to the U.S. declined significantly in Q1 2019 due to reduced demand and tariff impacts.

• Trade Diversion:

  • Brazil gained the most from trade diversion in soybean exports.
  • Other countries such as India, Mexico, and Vietnam also benefited from the shift in trade flows.
  • The U.S. and China’s trade tensions caused significant shifts in import and export patterns, with developing countries being the main beneficiaries.

• Recommendations:

  • Avoiding escalation in trade tensions is in the long-term interest of all countries.
  • A managed trade deal between the U.S. and China, especially one involving bilateral purchase commitments, could help stabilize trade.
  • Multilateral solutions and WTO reforms are crucial to address trade disputes and protect open markets.

Conclusion

The report underscores that trade tensions have had short-term negative effects on trade flows and prices but long-term consequences for global economic stability. It emphasizes the importance of cooperative trade policies and multilateral frameworks to mitigate risks and maintain global trade resilience.