20140318-Maybank_KERPL-Target_price_tweaked_higher_11页_584kb

报告摘要

2013 Earnings: Core earnings rose by 28% to PHP14.83b, slightly above the target of PHP14.79b.
Earnings Drivers: Higher equity earnings from investee companies, especially BPI and ALI.
- BPI: Equity contribution increased 45% to PHP8.30b due to higher profits and increased stake (48.3% from 44%).
- ALI: Contribution increased 19% to PHP5.55b, contributing 32% of total equitized earnings.
Other Units: GLO and MWC also showed growth, while other investments faced losses due to start-up and project costs.

Earnings Revised Up: 2014 earnings estimate increased by 10% to PHP16.64b.
Reasons for Adjustment:
- Higher BPI earnings due to a PHP25b rights offering.
- Increased MWC profit contribution due to a 5.7% stake acquisition.
- Lower preferred dividend payments from the redemption of PHP6b worth of preferred shares.

Real-time NAV per Share: PHP653.72
Target NAV per Share: PHP769.53
Discount to NAV: 15% (using market prices), widening to 28% using target prices.
ALI as Largest Contributor: Contributes 44% to NAV, with a target price of PHP37.80.
Core FD P/E Ratio: Decreased from 36.8 to 19.5 over the period.
P/BV Ratio: Decreased from 3.0 to 1.8 over the period.

Metric	FY11A	FY12A	FY13E	FY14E	FY15E
Revenue (PHPm)	86,834.5	104,133.9	124,535.8	140,745.3	159,228.7
EBITDA (PHPm)	19,678.8	23,588.8	27,298.9	30,123.8	34,525.6
Core Net Profit (PHPm)	8,784.0	11,600.0	14,788.5	17,162.0	21,141.2
Net Dividend Yield (%)	0.7	0.7	0.9	0.9	0.9
ROAE (%)	5.2	6.2	6.8	7.0	7.7
ROAA (%)	2.6	2.7	2.8	3.0	3.4
Net Debt/Equity (%)	49.6	74.0	71.9	67.3	50.4

Parent-Level Cash: Declined by 31% to PHP25.6b due to various investments in 2013.
Gross Debt (as of 12/31/13): PHP71.0b
Net Debt (as of 12/31/13): PHP45.4b
Net Debt/Equity: 49.6%
Net Gearing: 0.3x, remains manageable.

Ayala Land Inc (ALI): PHP7,418m (32% of total equitized earnings)
Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI): PHP10,029m (43% of total equitized earnings)
Globe Telecom Inc (GLO): PHP3,853m (16% of adjusted equitized earnings)
Manila Water Co Inc (MWC): PHP2,263m (10% of equitized earnings)
Others: (130)m (negligible contribution)

Upward Earnings Forecast: 2014 earnings increased by 10% to PHP16.64b.
Positive Outlook on ALI: ALI is the largest contributor to earnings and is rated as BUY.
Undervaluation Concern: AC is trading 15% below its real-time NAV and 28% below target NAV, suggesting potential for upside.
Preferred Dividend Reduction: Lower preferred dividends due to share redemption.
Stable Debt Profile: Net debt/equity ratio is expected to decrease, and net gearing remains under control.
Investment in Key Units: Continued investment in BPI, MWC, and others enhances earnings contribution.

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