2013年-世界发展银行全球_Deforestation_Trends_in_the_Congo_Basin___Agriculture_77页_9mb

Summary of "Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection"

Core Content

The working paper "Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection" explores the relationship between agricultural development and deforestation in the Congo Basin. It highlights the potential for agricultural growth and the associated risks to forest cover, while proposing policy measures to ensure sustainable development.

Main Points

• Agriculture as a Key Sector: Agriculture is a major economic and employment driver in the Congo Basin, particularly in Cameroon, the Central African Republic (CAR), the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Equatorial Guinea. However, it remains underdeveloped and underfunded.

• Subsistence Dominance: The agricultural sector is dominated by traditional subsistence systems with low productivity and minimal use of inputs like fertilizers and improved seeds. This leads to a high reliance on food imports.

• Deforestation Trends: Deforestation in the Congo Basin has been primarily driven by subsistence activities and demographic pressures, with most new agricultural land coming at the expense of forests. The rate of deforestation is relatively low compared to other regions, but it is increasing due to growing population and agricultural expansion.

• Land Suitability and Availability: The Congo Basin has a significant amount of uncultivated, non-forested land suitable for agricultural expansion, representing about 40% of such land in Sub-Saharan Africa and 12% globally. This land could potentially double the current cultivated area without deforestation.

• Water Resources: The region is characterized by abundant water resources, which are expected to remain stable or increase, providing a comparative advantage in the face of global water scarcity due to climate change.

• International Demand: The region is not yet fully integrated into global agricultural markets, but there is potential for future integration, especially with the growing demand for agricultural commodities. This could lead to increased deforestation through substitution effects in production.

• Challenges of Agricultural Modernization: Poor infrastructure, weak land tenure security, and limited public support for R&D have hindered agricultural modernization. These factors also contribute to the persistence of subsistence farming and low productivity.

• Role of Large-Scale Plantations: While large-scale plantations exist in Cameroon, they are limited in other Congo Basin countries. Their impact on deforestation is minimal compared to smallholder farming activities.

Key Recommendations

To reconcile agricultural development with forest protection, the following policy recommendations are proposed:

• Prioritize Agricultural Expansion in Non-forested Areas: Focus on developing agriculture in non-forested regions to reduce pressure on forested areas.

• Enforce Forest Protection and Manage the Agricultural Frontier: Implement strict forest protection policies and manage the agricultural frontier to prevent illegal deforestation.

• Clarify Land Tenure Governance: Improve land tenure security to encourage sustainable land use and investment.

• Promote Climate-Smart Agriculture: Encourage agricultural practices that enhance productivity and reduce vulnerability to climate change.

• Empower Smallholder Farmers: Support smallholder farmers through better access to resources, training, and markets.

• Promote Sustainable Large-Scale Agribusiness: Encourage large-scale agricultural enterprises that operate sustainably and contribute to economic growth without deforestation.

• Foster Win-Win Partnerships: Develop partnerships between large-scale operators and smallholders to promote mutual benefits and sustainable practices.

• Develop Transport Infrastructure: Improve infrastructure to facilitate market access and reduce the need for land expansion into forests.

• Create Positive Incentives and Remove Negative Incentives: Implement policies that support sustainable agriculture and discourage deforestation.

• Reinvigorate Research and Development: Invest in agricultural R&D to improve productivity and support climate-smart practices.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for a new development approach that balances agricultural growth with forest conservation. While the agricultural sector in the Congo Basin has significant potential, its expansion must be managed carefully to avoid deforestation. The CongoBIOM model, developed by IIASA, highlights the importance of policy interventions in shaping the future of agriculture and forest protection in the region.

Key Figures and Data

• The rural population in the Congo Basin countries remains over 60% in DRC, CAR, and Equatorial Guinea.
• The share of the economically active population in agriculture is over 50% in Cameroon, CAR, DRC, and Equatorial Guinea.
• Agricultural GDP (AGDP) in Cameroon has grown at 4.8% annually, outpacing population growth.
• The per capita agricultural production index has stagnated or declined in most Congo Basin countries, except the Republic of Congo.
• The Congo Basin has about 40% of uncultivated, non-forested land in Sub-Saharan Africa suitable for agriculture.

Key Tables and Data

• Table 1.4: Net Food Trade, 2006
• Table 1.1: Total Plantation Areas and Share in Total Land under Cultivation, 2008
• Table 1.2: Share of Agricultural Expenditure in National Budget
• Table 1.3: Potential Supply of Non-cultivated Non-forested Low-Population-Density Land
• Table 1.5: IFPRI Global Hunger Index, 2009
• Table 1.6: Total Rainforest Areas and Net Annual Deforestation and Forest Degradation Rates, 1990-2000
• Table 1.7: Changes in Forest Area in Africa and in the Main Negative Contributors to World Total Forest Area, 1990-2010
• Table 1.8: Rural/Urban Population and Urbanization Trends in the Congo Basin Countries
• Table 2-1: Potential Land Availability by Country (million hectares)

Key Boxes

• Box 1-1: Highlights the importance of plantation development in Cameroon compared to other Congo Basin countries.
• Box 1-2: Provides a historical overview of large-scale plantations in the region.
• Box 1-3: Discusses the role of agriculture in Africa and the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP).
• Box 1-4: Focuses on the potential for palm oil production in Cameroon.
• Box 2-1: Explains the CongoBIOM model and its role in analyzing deforestation trends.
• Box 2-2: Outlines recent trends in large-scale agricultural expansion in Cameroon.
• Box 3-1: Introduces the concept of climate-smart agriculture and its benefits.
• Box 3-2: Discusses the potential of partnerships between large-scale operators and smallholders.
• Box A.1: Details the underlying assumptions of the CongoBIOM model.

Acronyms

• AGDP: Agricultural Gross Domestic Product
• CAADP: Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme
• CFA: Central African Franc
• CGIAR: Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
• COMIFAC: Central Africa Forests Commission
• DRC: Democratic Republic of Congo
• ECCAS: Economic Community of Central African States
• FLEGT: Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade Support Programme
• GHG: Greenhouse Gas
• GHI: Global Hunger Index
• IFPRI: International Food Policy Research Institute
• IIASA: International Institute for Applied System Analysis
• IRAD: Institute de Recherche Agricole pour le Développement
• PES: Payment(s) for Environmental Services
• REDD+: Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation+
• R&D: Research and Development
• STABEX: Système de Stabilisation des Recettes d'Exportation

Executive Summary Highlights

• The agricultural sector in the Congo Basin is largely subsistence-based with low productivity.
• The region has significant potential for agricultural expansion, but this must be managed to avoid deforestation.
• Agricultural development is expected to increase in the medium to long term, driven by both internal and external market forces.
• The CongoBIOM model indicates that agricultural intensification may lead to increased deforestation unless accompanied by supportive policies.
• Policy recommendations include promoting sustainable agriculture, improving infrastructure, clarifying land tenure, and fostering partnerships between smallholders and large-scale operators.