2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Federated_States_of_Micronesia_2012_Article_IV_Consultation_48页_1mb

Federated States of Micronesia: 2012 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content

The 2012 Article IV consultation with the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) focused on assessing the country's economic developments, fiscal sustainability, and the need for structural reforms to ensure long-term growth. The consultation highlighted the country's reliance on external aid, particularly from the United States under the Compact of Free Association, and the challenges posed by the scheduled expiry of these grants in FY2023. The staff report, released on December 20, 2012, outlined key issues, including the need for fiscal adjustment, the role of the private sector, and the importance of financial sector reforms.

Main Points

Economic Environment

• The FSM economy continued to expand in FY2012, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years.
• Growth was driven by construction projects and the fishery sector, which benefited from good conditions and high prices.
• Inflation moderated from its FY2009 peak but remained volatile due to commodity price fluctuations.
• The economy remains highly dependent on the public sector, which accounts for 40% of GDP.

Outlook and Risks

• Economic growth is expected to slow in the near term due to the reduction in Compact grants and weak private sector performance.
• The current account deficit remains high, primarily financed by official transfers and remittances.
• Risks to the outlook are on the downside, including global growth slowdowns, commodity price shocks, and continued outward migration.
• Upside risks include U.S. military base upgrades in Guam and delayed infrastructure grants.

Fiscal Sustainability

• The FSM faces a significant challenge in achieving long-term fiscal self-reliance by FY2023.
• A fiscal adjustment of 5–6.5% of GDP is required over the medium term to close the revenue gap.
• Key reforms include tax reforms, expenditure cuts, and improved financial management.
• The Compact Trust Fund (CTF) holds substantial assets, but they are insufficient to replace future grants, necessitating a fiscal adjustment strategy.

Private Sector Development

• Weak private sector development is a major constraint on sustainable growth.
• Reforms to reduce the cost of doing business, such as liberalizing land use and streamlining investment permits, are needed.
• A national development plan should guide these efforts, building on the momentum from the 2012 Development Partners Forum.

Financial Sector

• The banking sector is liquid but contributes little to economic growth.
• High interest rate spreads and limited collateral availability pose challenges.
• The FSM Development Bank should be redirected to support viable start-ups rather than compete with private banks.

Key Information

Fiscal Policy

• The government needs to implement a long-term fiscal adjustment plan to achieve self-sufficiency.
• The 2023 Planning Committee was established to assess the financial situation and develop a realistic action plan.
• The Committee's key deliverables include a credible long-term fiscal strategy, a balanced fiscal adjustment path, policy buffers, and public engagement.
• The staff recommended a fiscal surplus of 6.4% of GDP by FY2016 and maintaining it until FY2023 to meet the target.

Tax and Expenditure Reforms

• A comprehensive tax reform is planned, including the creation of a Unified Revenue Authority (URA) and the introduction of a net profits tax and value added tax.
• The reform aims to make the tax system more efficient and reduce distortions.
• Expenditure cuts, particularly in public wages, are essential for fiscal adjustment.

Social Security System

• The social security system is under financial strain, with benefit payments exceeding contributions.
• A contribution rate increase to 7.5% is scheduled for 2013, but this is unlikely to resolve the long-term deficit.
• The system requires further reforms in benefit structure and tax collection.

Public Enterprises

• Public enterprises account for 8.6% of GDP and pose fiscal risks due to contingent liabilities.
• Subsidies to public enterprises have decreased, but some capital support remains for essential services.

Authorities' Views

• The authorities generally agreed with the staff's economic projections and outlook.
• They acknowledged the need for fiscal adjustment but emphasized the importance of balancing it with the protection of critical public services.
• They agreed on the necessity of reducing public sector wages and improving tax administration.
• They noted the limitations of the existing trust fund in mitigating external shocks and the need for more comprehensive reforms.

Conclusion

• The FSM must proceed with fiscal and structural reforms to ensure long-term sustainability and economic growth.
• Strengthening fiscal policy space, improving financial management, and enhancing the private sector are critical for future stability.
• The country's dependence on external aid and the challenges of attracting foreign investment require strategic and coordinated efforts to secure its economic future.