2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Federated_States_of_Micronesia_2017_Article_IV_Consultation_65页_2mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 17/280: Federated States of Micronesia

Core Content

The IMF Executive Board concluded the 2017 Article IV Consultation with the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) on September 1, 2017. This report outlines the economic developments, fiscal and external sustainability challenges, and policy recommendations for the FSM.

Main Economic Developments

• The FSM economy showed a gradual recovery in FY2016, after three years of contraction from FY2012 to FY2014.
• Real GDP growth was estimated at 3.0% in FY2016 (up from 3.7% in FY2015), driven by increased construction activity and fishing license fees.
• Consumer prices remained stable, with inflation expected to converge to the U.S. rate of 2% as Compact-funded infrastructure spending resumes.
• The fiscal balance recorded a surplus of 9% of GDP in FY2016, mainly due to strong fishing license revenues.
• Growth is expected to moderate to 2% in FY2017, with continued recovery in the construction sector.

Medium-term Outlook and Risks

• Growth is projected to decline to 0.6% by FY2023 without major reforms, due to expiring U.S. Compact grants and climate change impacts.
• Fiscal sustainability is at risk, as the Compact Trust Fund (CTF) and FSM Trust Fund (FSMTF) are expected to generate investment earnings that fall short of replacing the expiring grants.
• Current account surpluses are expected to decline over the medium term.
• External debt-to-GDP and debt-to-exports ratios are projected to increase, but concessional borrowing with long maturities keeps debt service ratios low.
• Downside risks include extreme weather events, delays in infrastructure projects, and declining external grants, while upside risks include fiscal and structural reforms and lower energy prices.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal Adjustment: A 4% of GDP adjustment is needed over the medium term to build fiscal buffers and ensure sustainability. This should be achieved through domestic revenue mobilization, expenditure reforms, and increased trust fund savings.
• Climate Adaptation: The budget must explicitly recognize fiscal costs of climate change adaptation, and contingent financing plans for natural disasters should be developed from diverse sources.
• Private Sector Development: Reforms should focus on reducing transportation costs, strengthening regulatory frameworks, and improving access to finance.
• Financial Inclusion: The Banking Board should extend its oversight to credit unions, and efforts should be made to develop secured lending instruments such as the long-term lease market and the online secured transactions registry.
• Financial Literacy: Improving financial literacy and addressing skill gaps is essential to support private sector growth and financial inclusion.

Executive Board Assessment

• The Executive Board welcomed recent improvements in economic activity and fiscal and external balances.
• However, significant challenges remain, including the scheduled expiration of U.S. Compact grants, vulnerability to natural disasters, and limited private sector activity.
• Fiscal reforms and structural adjustments are crucial to secure long-term fiscal sustainability and reduce vulnerabilities.
• Strengthening fiscal buffers is important to mitigate risks from global economic uncertainties.

Economic Indicators

Conclusion

The FSM faces medium-term fiscal challenges due to the expiring U.S. grants, climate change, and limited private sector activity. The IMF recommends fiscal and structural reforms to ensure long-term sustainability and resilience, including fiscal adjustment, climate adaptation, private sector development, and financial inclusion. The executive board emphasized the importance of building national consensus for reforms and strengthening fiscal buffers to mitigate risks from external shocks and global economic uncertainties.