2025-06-09-Jefferies-塔塔汽车（TTMT）_印度投资者日要点_14页_2mb

Tata Motors reaffirmed its strategic focus on enhancing franchise value and profitability for both passenger vehicles (PVs) and commercial vehicles (CVs) at India's Investor Day. In PVs, the company aims to launch seven new models by FY30 (including three more EVs and four ICE vehicles), capturing an additional 5-7 percentage of market share to reach 18-20% by fiscal year end, with targets of 10% EBITDA margin for total PVs by FY30 and 3 percentage points for CVs by FY27. For CVs, growth is expected at 3-5% CAGR over the next five years.

Tata faces multiple headwinds, including slowing CV demand, increasing competition in electric and traditional vehicles, regulatory and tariff risk for JLR, product fatigue, and rising customer acquisition costs. The company’s stock price target was lowered to INR630 (from prior estimates), reflecting cautious outlook on performance and risks in the Indian and broader auto markets. While profitable segments exist, underperforming businesses require restructuring.

Key financial metrics targeted include higher EBITDA margins for PVs and CVs, improved cash flows through reduced capital expenditure, and demerger of PV and CV segments to streamline operations. Analysts recommend shareholders retain a "UNPF" rating (underperform) due to uncertainties in growth and margins across business segments.