2015年-世界发展银行全球_Bangladesh___More_and_Better_Jobs_to_Accelerate_Shared_Growth_and_End_Extreme_Poverty_171页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Bangladesh

Core Content

This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Bangladesh, published in October 2015, outlines the country's progress in reducing extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity through the creation of more and better jobs. The report identifies key challenges and opportunities, emphasizing the importance of structural reforms, macroeconomic stability, and improved infrastructure to sustain economic growth and poverty reduction.

Main Findings

Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction

Bangladesh has experienced significant GDP growth (averaging around 6% from 2005 to 2015), which has been accompanied by declining poverty rates and reduced inequality.
13.8 million net new jobs were created between 2002/03 and 2013, with 10.5 million outside agriculture and 3.3 million in agriculture.
The share of manufacturing in employment increased from 14% to 21%, while agriculture fell from 52% to 45%.
Women's employment increased by 7 million, reaching 16.8 million in 2013, and the gender gap in labor force participation and wages narrowed.
Remittances from overseas workers have grown double-digit annually since 2000, reaching $14.5 billion in FY14, equivalent to 8% of GDP.
GNI per capita rose from $100 in 1972 to $1,314 in 2015, and Bangladesh crossed the lower-middle-income threshold in 2015.

Structural Shifts

Manufacturing has become the largest contributor to GDP growth, with its share increasing from 13% in 1981 to 17% in 2015.
Services sector has stabilized at 53-54% of GDP, contributing 3% to GDP growth in the 2000s.
Agriculture's share in GDP dropped from 30% in 1981 to 15% in 2015, and its contribution to GDP growth remained below 1% for most of the last three decades.

Human Development

Family planning programs have been successful in reducing total fertility rate from over 6 children per woman in the 1970s to 2.1 in 2011.
Domestic rice production increased from 12.3 million metric tons in the 1980s to 37.6 million in 2014.
Disaster response mechanisms have improved, with early warning systems and cyclone shelters helping mitigate the impact of natural disasters.
Rural road networks developed in the 1980s have reduced the urban-rural divide and improved connectivity.

Challenges

Power shortages and poor transportation infrastructure (roads, rail, ports) limit labor productivity, making it much lower than in China, India, and Vietnam.
40% of the population still lacks access to electricity.
Road traffic between Dhaka and Chittagong can take up to 12 hours, indicating poor connectivity.
Poverty projections indicate a decline of 17 million people between 2000 and 2010, compared to less than 1 million between 1990 and 2000.
Dhaka, the largest city, is among the world's 10 worst cities to live in, despite being one of the 10 largest cities globally.

Key Priority Areas

The SCD identifies five transformative priority areas to accelerate job creation and poverty reduction:

Energy Sector: Address power shortages and rising energy costs.
Inland Connectivity and Logistics: Improve transportation infrastructure and reduce trade costs.
Regional and Global Integration: Enhance trade and investment linkages with neighboring countries and global markets.
Urbanization: Improve the livability and productivity of urban areas, especially Dhaka.
Adaptive Delta Management: Mitigate the impacts of climate change and natural disasters on the delta region.

Key Recommendations

Strengthen macroeconomic stability and human capital accumulation to support private sector-led growth.
Improve the business environment and public institutions to enhance investment and productivity.
Address infrastructure gaps, particularly in transport and energy, to improve labor productivity and trade efficiency.
Enhance connectivity in urban and rural areas to support economic integration and poverty reduction.
Boost agricultural productivity and diversify the economy to reduce vulnerability and support sustainable growth.
Improve delta management to reduce climate-related risks and protect livelihoods.

Main Challenges and Opportunities

High youth unemployment remains a challenge, with 40% of the population lacking electricity access.
Remittances are a crucial income source, but low education and skills levels of migrant workers result in low remittance per worker.
Bangladesh's position as a major RMG exporter offers significant growth potential, especially if it can capture a larger share of global garment exports.
Economic integration with regional and global markets can further boost growth and employment.
Climate change and natural disasters pose existential threats, especially to the delta region.

Key Stakeholders and Support

The report was led by Johannes Zutt (Country Director) and Kyle Kelhofer (IFC Country Manager).
Salman Zaidi (IDA) and M. Masrur Reaz (IFC) were co-task leaders.
Peer reviewers included Sadiq Ahmed, Shamsul Alam, Magdi Amin, and Rinku Murgai.
Development partners, NGOs, and government officials provided substantial input and support throughout the process.

Conclusion

Bangladesh has made remarkable progress in poverty reduction and economic growth since the 2000s, driven by job creation, demographic changes, and improved human development. However, structural and policy challenges remain, particularly in energy, transport, and climate resilience. The SCD recommends focused efforts in these five priority areas to sustain growth and accelerate shared prosperity.