20180525-广发证券_香港_-China_Pulse_Check__Property_Sector_7页_849kb

报告摘要

China Pulse Check: Property Sector Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the Chinese property sector in April 2018, focusing on policy developments, property transactions, land market trends, liquidity conditions, and investment outlook. It is authored by GF Securities (Hong Kong) and includes insights from the GF A-share research team.

Main Policy Developments

Talent Policy Expansion: The central government extended talent policies to non-key cities, aiming to boost domestic demand and economic growth.
Local Housing Policies:
- Some cities, such as Xinyu, Longyan, and Tangshan, implemented favorable policies for skilled workers.
- Other cities, including Shenyang, Qingdao, and Harbin, introduced restrictive measures on housing prices, purchases, sales, and mortgages.
Differentiated Policies: The provident fund adopted varying policies on mortgage caps, downpayment ratios, and deposit durations.

Property Transactions

Transaction Volume: In April 2018, the total property area sold in 46 key cities decreased by 10.9% YoY. The decline was slightly narrower than in March.
Tiered Performance:
- First-tier cities: Sold area decreased by 24.2% YoY.
- Second-tier cities: Sold area decreased by 12.2% YoY.
- Third and fourth-tier cities: Sold area decreased by 1.4% YoY.
New Project Launches: Developers increased efforts in launching new projects, contributing to a 38.0% MoM growth in new property projects in 26 cities.
Transaction Growth Outlook: Property supply is expected to increase further in the second half of 2018, providing greater support for transaction growth.

Land Market Trends

Supply and Demand: Land supply and demand continued to rise in April, with land parcels of 96.41m sqm brought to market in 300 cities.
Sales and Prices:
- Land parcels sold: 72.66m sqm, totaling Rmb282bn, with an average premium of 20%.
- Third and fourth-tier cities: Showed significant increases in land prices and sales.
Tiered Performance:
- First-tier cities: Residential land supply and demand declined YoY.
- Second and third-tier cities: Residential land supply continued to rise, leading to sharp increases in transaction volumes.
- Fourth-tier cities: Experiencing strong growth in land prices and sales.

Liquidity and Financing Conditions

Tight Financing: Property developers still face tight financing conditions.
Financing Channels: ABS (Asset-Backed Securities) and overseas financing have become important channels.
Trust Loan Costs: Trust loan issuance costs rose by 0.35pp to 7.95%, indicating accelerated financing costs.
Mortgage Rates:
- First-home mortgage rates have bottomed out at 112bp.
- Future growth may be limited, and the effects of tight financing conditions could ease gradually.
Sector Valuation: With easing financing pressure and stabilized fundamentals, the sector's valuation is expected to rise further.
Investment Outlook: The report remains positive on investment opportunities in the property sector, particularly in leading developers in first and second-tier cities.

Risks

Further Policy Tightening: Potential for more stringent property regulations.
Rising Mortgage Rates: Continued upward pressure on mortgage rates could impact affordability and demand.

Investment Ratings

Company Ratings

Buy: Stock expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 15%.
Accumulate: Stock expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%.
Hold: Expected stock relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%.
Underperform: Stock expected to underperform the benchmark by more than 5%.

Sector Ratings

Positive: Sector expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 10%.
Neutral: Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%.
Cautious: Sector expected to underperform the benchmark by more than 10%.

Key Figures and Data

Figure 1: April 2018 central government key policy overview.
Figure 2: April 2018 local government key policy overview.
Figure 3: Property area sold YoY growth in 46 key cities (with and without HPRs).
Figure 4: 32 cities' total area of residential property inventory and inventory depletion cycle.
Figure 5: Property transaction data across various regions, including:
- Bohai Rim: Beijing, Qingdao, Dalian, Dongying.
- Yangtze River Delta: Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, Yangzhou, Anqing, Jinhua, Changzhou, Jiangyin, Zhenjiang, Yancheng, Zhoushan.
- Pearl River Delta: Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Huizhou, Shaoguan, Foshan, Jiangmen, Zhaoqing.
- Midwest: Wuhan, Yueyang, Nanning, Nanchang, Wulumuqi, Xiangyang, Hohhot, Lijiang.
- West Economic Zone: Fuzhou, Xiamen, Wenzhou, Quanzhou, Ganzhou, Putian, Shantou, Sanming.
- Others: Changchun, Jilin, Lianyungang, Huainan, Huaian, Mudanjiang.
Figure 6: Changes in first-home mortgage rates at 533 banks.
Figure 7: 35 key cities' average second-home mortgage rates.
Figure 8: Corporate bond and overseas bond issuance costs for listed property developers.

Disclaimer and Disclosure

The report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
No liability is accepted for losses arising from the use of the report's materials.
The report may contain conflicting views from GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its proprietary trading division.
The analysts and their associates have no financial interests in the securities mentioned.

Analyst Certification

The research analyst certifies that all views expressed in the report accurately reflect their personal opinions.
No part of their remuneration is directly or indirectly linked to the report's recommendations.