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报告摘要

China Auto Sector Pulse Check Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the performance of the China auto sector in July 2023, including sales trends, sector valuations, and key indices. It also includes investment recommendations and risk factors for the auto and auto component industries.

Sales Performance

Passenger Vehicles

Total sales: 1.59 million units in July, down 5.3% YoY and 15.2% MoM.
Sub-segment performance:
- Sedans: Down 1.3% YoY.
- Minibuses: Up 29.7% YoY.
- SUVs: Down 8.2% YoY.
- MPVs: Down 21.9% YoY.

Commercial Vehicles

Total sales: 300,000 units, up 2.3% YoY.
Sub-segment performance:
- Medium/Heavy-duty trucks: Down 21.1% YoY.
- Light trucks: Up 10.9% YoY.
- Buses: Down 25.4% YoY (9,000 units), with large buses down 33.3% YoY and medium buses down 15.1% YoY.
- Public transport buses: Down 0.9% YoY (4,467 units).
- Coaches: Down 32.0% YoY (3,489 units).

Sector Valuation Trends

Wind Auto and Auto Component Index: Declined 2.9% in July, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.1 percentage points.
Sub-index performance:
- SW OEM Index: Down 8.2%.
- SW Bus Index: Down 9.9%.
- SW PV Index: Down 8.4%.
- SW Truck Index: Down 2.0%.
- SW Auto Component Index: Down 1.8%.
- SW Auto Sales Index: Edged up 0.4%.

Key Indices

Auto Raw Materials Cost Index

July reading: 7,202, up 7.5% YoY and 1.1% MoM.
Automakers can partially pass on cost burdens to suppliers.
Long-term profitability is not strongly correlated with costs.

Fuel Price Index

Natural gas to diesel price ratio: 49.4% in July, up 2.9% MoM.
Government subsidies and natural gas incentives are key factors influencing demand for natural gas-fueled vehicles.

Investment Highlights

Passenger Vehicle Sector

Recommended stocks:
- Huayu Automotive Systems (600741 CH)
- SAIC Motor (600104 CH)
These companies are highlighted for solid earnings growth, undemanding valuations, and high dividend payouts.

Heavy-Duty Truck Sector

Sector outlook: Internationally competitive.
Leading companies have shown sales stability and profitability exceeding expectations.
Dividend payouts are expected to rise.
Recommended stock: CNHTC Jinan Truck (000951 CH), with potential for market share expansion.
Weichai Power (000338 CH) and Weifu High-Technology (000581 CH) are also highlighted due to their cheap valuations, solid performance, and potential for rising dividends.

Sector Ratings

Rating	Definition
Positive	Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral	Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious	Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Risks

Economic growth missing expectations
Auto sector business conditions deteriorating
Weaker-than-expected policy enforcement

Key Data Snapshots

Figures 1-4: Provide insights into the auto sector's P/E (TTM), relative P/E (TTM), P/B (LY), and relative P/B (LY).
Figures 5-6: Show NEV PVs and NEV CVs monthly sales volumes.
Figures 7-9: Present various GF Indices related to raw material costs and fuel prices.

Rating Definitions

Buy: Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%.
Accumulate: Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%.
Hold: Expected stock relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%.
Underperform: Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%.

Disclaimer

This report is not an offer to buy or sell any securities.
It is solely for informational purposes.
Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Recommendations are not tailored to individual investment objectives or financial situations.

Legal and Ethical Disclosures

Analyst Certification: All views reflect the analyst's personal opinions.
Disclosure of Interests: GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliates do not hold any shares in the mentioned securities, nor do they have investment banking relationships with the companies discussed.
No liability: GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for losses arising from the use of the report's materials.