国际战略研究中心-破冰：学术交流在稳定美中关系中的作用（英）-2023.4-40页_605kb

Breaking the Ice: Role of Scholarly Exchange in Stabilizing U.S.-China Relations

Executive Summary

Over the last decade, U.S.-China relations have deteriorated to levels of animosity not seen since the late 1960s. The report argues that physical isolation through limited face-to-face communication is contributing to a worsening of ties. Scott Kennedy and Wang Jisi undertook trips to break this isolation, advocating for direct engagement. To stabilize relations, both governments must commit to restoring direct connections, resuming dialogue, expanding scholarly exchanges, and facilitating travel.

The Path to Estrangement

U.S.-China Relations

From the 1970s to the mid-2010s, relations were relatively stable due to shared interests and interdependence. However, since 2016–17, tensions have escalated, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Key events include the U.S. trade war, sanctions on China, and mutual expulsions of diplomats.

Consequences of Limited Direct Contact

Limited connectivity fosters misunderstandings. Without direct interactions, reliance on biased sources (media, government statements) and reduced access to information (e.g., journalists) exacerbate distrust. Additionally, lack of physical presence hinders empathy and nuanced understanding, contributing to a self-reinforcing cycle of estrangement.

Trips to the United States (Wang Jisi)

• Challenges: COVID-19 risks, travel restrictions, quarantine, and political tensions made the journey difficult.

• Delegation: Wang presented a unified view of China’s position, emphasizing reciprocity and non-interference.

• Impressions of U.S. Society: Wang assessed the U.S. domestic political debate (e.g., polarization, racial issues) and questioned if the decline narrative holds.

• U.S. Views on Bilateral Relations: Americans increasingly view China as strategically competitive, criticizing human rights, Xinjiang policies, and technological competition.

The Trip to China (Scott Kennedy)

• Visa, Flight, and Quarantine: Kennedy faced strict travel restrictions and length quarantine.

• Impressions of China: Zero-COVID policies caused
  daily life hardships, anger, and resentment among the populace.

• Economy: Despite entrepreneurial signs, economists note muted consumerism due to lockdowns and political uncertainty.

• Political Realignment: Reduced openness in political discourse with increased emphasis on nationalism.

Consensus on U.S.-China Relations

More than 90% of Chinese interlocutors agreed:

• The change is due entirely to U.S. actions (trade wars, Taiwan issue, suppression of people).
• China is not picking fights but defending itself.
• The U.S. aims to contain China’s rise and suppress the CCP.

U.S.-China Relations Vicious Cycle

Each party’s actions fuel the other’s insecurity. For instance, U.S. sanctions on China and China’s nationalism reinforce mutual distrust. The lack of face-to-face communication amplifies tensions, making positive change even harder.

Conclusions and Policy Recommendations

The Vicious Cycle

A cycle of mutual distrust tightens the situation. U.S. actions are seen as designed to impede China’s growth. Hence, China’s reactions include strengthening boundaries around Taiwan and stepping up nationalism.

Policy Recommendations

1. Commit to restoring direct connections – including students and academics.
2. Easier visa procedures for non-immigrant travelers.
3. Expand dialogue without political conditions or narrowing its scope.
4. Resuming legislative and local government exchanges can improve mutual understanding.
5. End restrictions on press and academics and re-establish independent journalism.
6. Reinforce scholarly ties and establish Track 1.5 dialogue on academic cooperation.

About the Authors

• Scott Kennedy is chief China expert at CSIS, focused on innovation, technology, and economic strategy.
• Wang Jisi is a leading Chinese scholar on U.S. policy and international relations.

Creating bridges through dialogue is essential to break the deadlock. The happiness or harmony of this world is largely dependent on the actions taken to foster increased understanding between these two major societies.