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Summary of "Opportunities for European Collaboration in Armoured Vehicles"

Core Content

This report, commissioned by the European Defence Agency (EDA), explores potential collaborative opportunities for European countries in the development, procurement, and maintenance of armoured vehicles, excluding main battle tanks (MBTs). The study aims to support the EDA's mission to enhance European defence capabilities and promote armaments cooperation through initiatives like the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO). The analysis is based on a comprehensive review of current and future trends in armoured vehicle use, R&D, and procurement across EDA member states and partner countries.

Main Findings

• European Armoured Vehicle Holdings: EDA member states and partner countries hold the second-largest global armoured vehicle fleet, surpassing the U.S. fleet and trailing only Russia. The fleet is composed of three main categories: armoured tracked vehicles, armoured wheeled vehicles, and protected transport vehicles.
• Fragmentation and Overcapacity: The European armoured vehicle market is highly fragmented, with over 37,000 vehicles and more than 40 different vehicle families. There are 18 manufacturers in Europe, with 16 producing vehicles in serial production. This overcapacity presents an opportunity for collaboration.
• Procurement and Development Trends: There is a balanced interest in the procurement of all three vehicle categories, with significant activity in modernisation, upgrades, and R&D. Tracked vehicles, despite being a smaller category, show strong government interest due to their superior protection and firepower.
• Industrial Consolidation: Some consolidation has already occurred (e.g., KMW and Nexter merger in 2016), and further integration is likely. European manufacturers have experience in cross-border supply-chain integration, though national supplier links remain dominant.

Key Vehicle Categories

• Armoured Tracked Vehicles:
  • Comprise 42% of the European fleet.
  • Show high levels of modernisation and upgrade activity.
  • Examples of development: ASCOD 2, Puma IFV, Lynx IFV, Borsuk, DCL Renove.
• Armoured Wheeled Vehicles:
  • The second-largest category in Europe.
  • Focus of most procurement and R&D activity.
  • Examples of development: Rosomak 2, Piranha V.
• Protected Transport Vehicles:
  • Smaller category with fewer modernisation and procurement activities.
  • Dominated by France's fleet.
  • Vehicles are generally newer than those in the other categories.

Potential Collaboration Models

The report outlines five collaboration models that could lead to cost savings and operational benefits:

1. Pooling and Sharing of Spare Parts

   • Savings: 21%-63%
   • Description: Shared spare parts across countries can reduce procurement and storage costs.

2. Joint Level 4 MRO (Maintenance, Repair, Overhaul)

   • Savings: 19%-63%
   • Description: Collaborative MRO facilities can improve efficiency and reduce costs.

3. Joint Modular Upgrade

   • Savings: 52%-59%
   • Description: Modular upgrades allow for standardized enhancements across different vehicle platforms.

4. Joint Off-the-Shelf Procurement

   • Savings: 20%-25%
   • Description: Purchasing existing platforms from commercial sources can reduce development and R&D costs.

5. Joint Platform Development

   • Savings: 26%-36%
   • Description: Co-developing new platforms can lead to shared costs and improved interoperability.

PESCO Collaboration Scenarios

The report also evaluates potential cost savings under the PESCO framework, considering collaboration in armoured infantry fighting vehicles, amphibious assault vehicles, and light armoured vehicles:

• Scenario A: Current PESCO project participants and observers, assuming 30% fleet replacement.
  • Savings: 34%-49%
• Scenario B: All EDA pMS and three partner countries, assuming 30% fleet replacement.
  • Savings: 52%-70%

Key Considerations for Collaboration

• Strategic and Operational Alignment: Collaboration must consider differing national priorities, including adversary profiles, mission sets, terrain, and political considerations.
• Maintenance and Repair Philosophies: Variations in maintenance approaches and timelines require careful coordination.
• Cost Assumptions: The cost models rely on assumptions due to limited publicly available data, and are adjusted for inflation and currency.
• Economies of Scale: Simplified models assume uniform application of economies of scale, which may not reflect real-world complexities.

Conclusion

The study highlights the potential for significant cost savings and operational benefits through European collaboration in armoured vehicles. While challenges remain, the existing fragmentation and overcapacity in the European market suggest that cooperation could lead to more efficient resource allocation, better interoperability, and enhanced strategic alignment. The PESCO initiative provides a promising framework for exploring these opportunities, particularly in the areas of procurement, R&D, and platform development.