2025-06-11-花旗集团-挑战者有限公司（CGF）_Challenger_Ltd_（CGF.AX）_可能是好消息_但有多好尚不明朗_11页_329kb

Challenger Ltd (CGF.AX) is expected to benefit from APRA's proposals to reform the capital settings for longevity products, which address high costs and pro-cyclicality in annuities. The key changes include a potential increase in the illiquidity premium factor from 33% to 50-65% and a shift in the reference benchmark to better match the insurer's investment portfolio. Citigroup believes these changes could significantly improve Challenger's capital position and reduce profit volatility, with impacts likely from CY26. The company's target price is A$7.55, reflecting a sum-of-the-parts valuation. However, risks include market volatility, asset-liability mismatch, regulatory uncertainty, and potential negative reactions to capital release for shareholders.