20131105-Maybank_KERPL-3Q13_–_To_be_Marginally_Better_Than_2Q13_11页_1012kb

报告摘要

MALEE Earnings Preview Summary

Core Content

MALEE is a leading manufacturer of fruit juice and canned fruit, with additional product lines including corn milk and drinking water. The company has been listed on the SET since March 1992 and is known for its diverse brand portfolio. The current share price is THB33.75, with a target price of THB44.00, and the stock is rated as a BUY with no change in the rating.

Key Financial Metrics

Market Cap: US$153.1 million
3-Month Avg Daily Turnover: US$0.7 million
Free Float: 28.4%
Major Shareholders:
- Abico Holdings Plc: 25.49%
- Jungrungruangkit Family: 18.05%
- Chirathivat Family: 9.27%

Key Indicators (2014)

ROE (%): 31.6
Net Debt/Cash: 110
NTA/Share (Bt): 9.35
Interest Cover (x): 46.9

Earnings Outlook for 3Q13

Net Profit: THB97 million, up 6% QoQ but down 44% YoY
Total Sales: THB1.68 billion, up 19.6% QoQ
Domestic Sales: THB1.33 billion, up 5% QoQ
Export Sales: THB350 million, up 153% QoQ
Gross Profit: THB451 million, up 24% QoQ
Operating Profit: THB112 million, up 2% QoQ
EPS (Reported): 0.69, up 6% QoQ
Dividend Yield (%): 4.7

Profitability and Margins

Gross Margin: 26.8% (up 100bps from 2Q13)
Operating Margin: 6.7%
EBITDA Margin: 10.0%
Net Profit Margin: 5.8%

Strategic Insights

3Q13 Performance: Expected to be marginally better than 2Q13, driven by strong export growth and improved margins.
Competitive Strategy: MALEE has not adopted aggressive pricing strategies, instead focusing on new product launches and marketing events. The launch of Healti Plus has helped increase brand visibility and is now available nationwide.
Stock Valuation: Trading at 8.7x 2014 PE, which is lower than the SET's 12.5x 2014 PE, making it attractive. The yield is 4.7%, higher than the SET's 3.7%.
Bearish Outlook: Despite the improved performance, the bearish sentiment on the SET due to political uncertainty may affect the stock's performance in the short term.

Financial Forecast (FY ends Dec 31)

Metric	2011A	2012A	2013F	2014F	2015F
Revenue (THB m)	3,726	6,286	5,468	6,735	8,492
EBITDA (THB m)	312	848	652	771	949
Recurring Earnings (THB m)	228	583	424	517	660
Recurring Basic EPS	0.3	4.2	3.1	4.1	5.2
EPS Growth (%)	114.1	1,318.1	-32.1	30.9	27.7
DPS (THB)	0.00	1.50	1.25	1.64	2.10
PER (x)	20.7	8.5	11.1	8.5	6.6
EV/EBITDA (x)	8.5	7.7	9.9	8.6	7.1
P/BV (x)	8.6	4.6	3.3	2.7	2.1
Net Gearing (%)	77.9	30.4	17.6	9.7	1.0

9M13 and FY13 Forecast

Metric	9M13E	FY13	% Forecast
Sales (THB m)	4,486	5,468	82%
EBITDA (THB m)	452	652	69%
Net Profit (THB m)	272	424	64%

Company Composition

Malee Enterprise Co., Ltd.: Distributor of canned fruits, UHT fruit juices, and pasteurized milk; 99.99% owned
Agri Sol Co., Ltd.: Manufacturer and distributor of canned sweet corn; 100.00% owned
Malee Supply Co., Ltd.: Distributor (Dormant); 97.60% owned
Icon Foods Co., Ltd.: Distributor (Dormant); 99.00% owned

Products

MALEE offers a wide range of products, including:

Canned Fruit: Malee, First Choice, Chao Suan, Malee Food Service
Fruit Juice: Malee, Malee Healthy Plus, Malee Veggies, Malee Juice Mix
Corn Milk: Malee I-Corn
Drinking Water: Malee
UHT Pasteurized Milk: Farm Chokchai
Ready to Drink Coffee: Nescafe and Birdy
New Products: Healti Plus, with nationwide distribution

Technical and Valuation Notes

3Q13 Forecast: If met, MALEE would outperform sales forecasts but slightly lag in profitability.
Valuation Trends: The stock is undervalued relative to the SET and has a strong dividend yield.

Disclaimer

This report is for general information only and should not be considered as investment advice. It is not intended to be relied upon for making investment decisions. The information is based on sources believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified. MKE disclaims any liability for any direct, indirect, or consequential losses arising from the use of this report. Forward-looking statements are subject to change and should not be relied upon as a guarantee of future performance.

Contact Information

Maria Lapiz: Institutional Research Department, Maybank KE
Email: Maria.L@maybank-ke.co.th
Phone: (662) 257 0250
Wong Chew Han: Regional Head, Institutional Research
Email: wchewh@maybank-jb.com
Phone: (603) 2297 8686
Alexander Garthoff: Institutional Product Manager
Email: agarthoff@maybank-ke.com.sg
Phone: (852) 2268 0638
Ong Seng Yeow: Regional Head, Retail Research
Email: ongsengyeow@maybank-ke.com.sg
Phone: (65) 6432 1453
Tim Leelahaphan: Thailand Research
Email: tim.l@maybank-ke.co.th
Phone: (662) 658 1420
Sukit Upomsirikul: Head of Research
Email: Sukit.u@maybank-ke.co.th
Phone: (66) 2658 6300 ext 5090
Padon Vannarat: Strategy
Email: Padon.v@maybank-ke.co.th
Phone: (66) 2658 6300 ext 1450
Surachai Pramualcharoenkit: Auto
Email: Surachai.p@maybank-ke.co.th
Phone: (66) 2658 6300 ext 1470
Suttatip Peerasub: Media
Email: suttatip.p@maybank-ke.co.th
Phone: (66) 2658 6300 ext 1430
Jesada Techahusdin: Consumer / Materials
Email: Jesada.T@maybank-ke.co.th
Phone: (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394
Kittisorn Pruitipat: Financial Services
Email: Kittisorn.P@maybank-ke.co.th
Phone: (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395
Michael Kokalari: Vietnam Research
Email: michael.kokalari@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Phone: (84) 838 38 66 47
Jesada Techahusdin: Consumer / Materials
Email: Jesada.T@maybank-ke.co.th
Phone: (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394
Jesada Techahusdin: Consumer / Materials
Email: Jesada.T@maybank-ke.co.th
Phone: (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394
Jesada Techahusdin: Consumer / Materials
Email: Jesada.T@maybank-ke.co.th
Phone: (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394
Jesada Techahusdin: Consumer / Materials
Email: Jesada.T@maybank-ke.co.th
Phone: (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394