2013年-世界发展银行全球_Trade_Costs_and_Development___A_New_Data_Set_4页_1mb

Summary of "Trade Costs and Development: A New Data Set"

Core Content

This document presents a new global data set on bilateral trade costs, developed by the World Bank and UNESCAP. The data set is based on trade and production data and provides insights into the factors that influence trade costs and their implications for trade integration, particularly in developing countries.

Main Viewpoints

• Trade Costs as Determinants of Trade Patterns: Trade costs are not only influenced by tariffs but also by a wide range of other factors such as distance, logistics, and non-tariff barriers. These factors can significantly affect the volume and direction of trade flows.
• Importance of Supply Chains and Connectivity: The document emphasizes that supply chains and connectivity constraints are key in explaining higher trade costs and lower trade integration in developing countries.
• Trade Costs in Developing vs. Developed Countries: Trade costs in developing countries are generally higher than in developed countries due to factors like poor infrastructure, inefficient logistics, and significant non-tariff barriers.
• Inverse Gravity Methodology: A novel approach is introduced to measure trade costs using the inverse gravity model, which allows for the estimation of trade costs based on observed trade and production patterns rather than direct proxies.

Key Information

Sources of Trade Costs

Trade costs have two main categories:

1. Bilateral Factors:

   • Geographical distance
   • Transportation costs and lead time
   • Common features between trading partners (language, history, border sharing, economic community membership)

2. Endogenous Factors:

   • Logistics performance (cost, delay, reliability)
   • Trade facilitation bottlenecks (border control, transit systems)
   • International connectivity (maritime, air, terrestrial services)
   • Tariffs
   • Non-tariff measures

Methodology: Inverse Gravity Model

• The inverse gravity model is used to estimate trade costs by analyzing the observed trade and production data.
• It provides an overall measure of trade costs between countries, which is more informative than traditional methods.
• This method helps identify the relative impact of trade costs on trade flows and can be used to assess the effectiveness of trade policies and infrastructure improvements.

Data Set Overview

• The data set covers 178 countries and two sectors (agriculture and manufacturing) for the period 1995–2010.
• It uses data from the UN Comtrade database and World Bank's WITS server for trade data.
• Domestic production data are sourced from UN national accounts and World Development Indicators, requiring several conversions to ensure comparability.
• Trade costs are calculated for as many bilateral pairs as possible, with interpolation used for missing data.

Recent Trends in Trade Costs

• Trade costs show an inverse relationship with per capita income: poorer countries tend to have higher trade costs.
• In manufacturing, trade costs have decreased more rapidly in high-income countries than in low-income ones.
• In agriculture, trade costs have remained relatively stable, indicating persistent policy barriers.
• The data highlight the need for developing countries to address trade costs to enhance global integration.

Policy Implications

• The data set serves as a practical tool for policymakers to assess trade costs and identify areas for improvement.
• It supports the design of trade facilitation and regional integration programs by highlighting the importance of logistics and border management.
• The analysis of trade cost links with policy factors offers an alternative to traditional gravity models for estimating trade potential.

Conclusion

This new data set provides a comprehensive and innovative way to measure trade costs globally, particularly in developing countries. By identifying the main sources of trade costs and analyzing their trends, it offers valuable insights for policymakers aiming to reduce trade barriers and enhance economic integration.