2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Managing_Director39s_Action_Plan_to_the_International_Monetary_and_Financial_Committee_3页_237kb

Managing Director's Action Plan Summary (IMFC, September 2011)

Core Content

The Managing Director's Action Plan outlines the IMF's strategy to address both immediate and long-term challenges to global financial stability. It emphasizes the need for coordinated global solutions, improved surveillance mechanisms, and timely governance reforms to enhance the Fund's legitimacy and effectiveness.

Immediate Threats to Global Stability

Surveillance Focus

The IMF's surveillance will prioritize the following areas to support member countries:

• Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Sustainability: Provide guidance on appropriate phasing of fiscal adjustments to ensure medium-term sustainability while supporting near-term growth. Assess employment and social impacts, and guide the macroeconomic policy mix.
• Bank Repair: Evaluate capital needs and suggest ways to meet them without causing further deleveraging. Propose modalities for cross-border bank resolution and macro-prudential tools to maintain systemic stability. Monitor progress in the financial core.
• Structural Measures: Advise on policies to revive growth and create jobs, especially in the context of fiscal consolidation and private sector deleveraging. Encourage a shift towards domestic consumption over export-led growth models.

Global Safety Net

To prevent gaps in coverage and funding, the IMF must:

• Ensure that its lending instruments address the diverse needs of members, including crisis bystanders and middle-income countries.
• Consider a global stability framework for systemic crises, potentially involving higher access and a general SDR allocation.
• Explore more flexible terms in existing facilities, especially for liquidity needs in emergency situations.

Support for Low-Income Countries (LICs)

• Vulnerabilities: Despite a recovery since 2010, LICs remain vulnerable to global shocks due to eroded fiscal buffers and limited aid expansion.
• Financial Support: Rapid and flexible response is essential. The 2009 PRGT financing package should be implemented first, including gold distribution and bilateral contributions.
• Policy Advice: Focus on rebuilding policy buffers and responses to shocks. Use the new vulnerability exercise to identify emerging risks. Improve the debt sustainability framework to better manage high public investment needs. Leverage contingent financial instruments from both official and private sectors.

Long-Term Health of the International Monetary System

Surveillance Apparatus

The Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) highlights progress and gaps in the IMF's surveillance capabilities. Key gaps include:

• Limited analysis of cross-country spillovers and comparisons.
• Inadequate risk assessments in bilateral and multilateral reports.
• Insufficient financial and external stability evaluations.
• Weak influence on policy decisions.
• Lack of attention to macro-social issues, particularly in the MENA region.

Proposed Remedies

To improve surveillance, the following measures are recommended:

• Conduct regular spillover and cross-country analysis in existing and dedicated reports.
• Enhance systematic risk analysis in both bilateral surveillance and flagship reports (WEO, GFSR, Fiscal Monitor).
• Strengthen financial and external stability assessments in Article IVs and flagship reports by addressing data gaps.
• Focus on macro-social issues to align with global priorities.
• Reform the legal framework for surveillance.

Next Steps

• The Executive Board will discuss an action plan based on IMFC feedback to address specific remedies in the above areas.
• The Fund's work program will include building blocks for enhanced surveillance, such as interconnections, data gaps, and macro-financial linkages.

Structural Changes in the International Monetary System

Capital Flows

• The Fund will continue to work on managing capital flows, building on previous efforts. It will explore principles for source country gross outflows, followed by net outflows and liberalization.

Reserve Currencies

• Develop clear, rules-based indicators to guide the integration of emerging markets into the global reserve currency system, particularly through the SDR basket.

Governance Reforms

Delays in Quota Reform

• The 2010 quota reform and Executive Board re-composition are progressing slowly. Only 20 members with 19% of voting power have consented to the reform, far below the required 113 countries and 85% of voting power.
• This delay risks disappointing expectations at the 2012 Annual Meetings and could affect the January 2013 quota formula review, which is a key step toward the 15th general quota review.

Political Effort Needed

• A stronger political push is required to meet the quota reform deadlines and to ensure the Fund's governance structure is more representative and effective.

Conclusion

The Action Plan underscores the IMF's dual role in addressing both short-term crises and long-term structural changes. It calls for enhanced surveillance, improved global safety nets, and urgent governance reforms to strengthen the Fund's credibility and effectiveness in a rapidly evolving global economy.