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报告摘要

Morgan Stanley RESEARCH UPDATE Summary

This report provides an update on global government bond markets, focusing on supply, coupons, redemptions, net issuance, and DV01 estimates for G7 countries (US, UK, Euro, Japan, Aus, NZ, CAN), Eurozone countries, and sovereign activities. Key highlights include:

Supply and Net Issuance Overview

Each section details upcoming and recent supply, coupon, redemption, and net issuance estimates for various countries over weekly and longer periods.
The US is projected to have net issuance of -$27.8bn over the next five weeks, driven by high redemptions.
The Eurozone shows significant issuance, but negative net issuance (-€38bn) reflects coupon payments.
Japan recently issued high-denomination JGBs, including a 30-year bond for ¥0.8trn.

G7 and Eurozone Net DV01 Estimates

DV01 (dollar value of a basis point) measures interest rate risk. For May 9, 2025:
- G7 net issuance across G7 nations is estimated at $106.4mm/bp.
- Eurozone excluding Germany shows net issuance varying by country (e.g., UK at -3.8mm/bp).
Charts from Exhibits 8, 9, and 10visualize these dynamics, emphasizing currency risks (e.g., EUR, GBP, JPY).

Upcoming Auctions and Awards

UK: Scheduled Gilt auctions for May include ₤1bn for a 0.625% Gilt 2045.
US: No issuance this week; key upcoming auction of new 20-year UST.
Japan: A 30-year JGB has recently been issued at ¥0.8trn.
Australia: Upcoming issuance of 3.5% AUD bond due Dec 2034 for AUD $12bill.
-Illustrations** like Exhibit 1 and 18 list detailed upcoming auctions for the week.

Example Weekly Breakdown:

Germany: 1.7% Jun 2027 Tap, €4.5bn, highlighted in Exhibit 1.

Key Regulatory and Disclosure Notes

Quantitative Tightening (QT) and repo risks are noted, especially in Eurozone and US operations.
Conflicts of Interest: Morgan Stanley engages in market making and trading securities analyzed in their research.
Data Sources: Includes Bloomberg, Treasury data, with emphasis on accuracy and responsibility of content.

Visual Insight

Excessive figures plotted in Exhibits 2-17 display volumetric trends (e.g., Chart from Exhibit 6 shows net issuance by region).

Investment and Strategy Implications

Bond Auction Insights: Low supply often signals market conditions.
DV01/Net Issuance: Negative readings highlight market anticipation of higher rates.
Global Rates Strategy: Analyst Matthew Hornbach suggests tracking G7 and Euro cash flows for directional shifts.

Conclusion

The report recommends monitoring key auctions, focusing on negative volatility in bonds (DV01) especially in the Eurozone and US. Inflation expectations, QT, and supply cycles lead the analysis.

Note: All data and visualizations are estimates as of their effective dates based on primary source data.

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