20150429-NATIXIS-Could_there_be_contagion_from_Greece_to_Portugal__14页_1010kb

报告摘要

FLASH ECONOMICS - Could there be contagion from Greece to Portugal?

Core Content

This document from FLASH ECONOMICS explores whether a Greek exit from the euro or heightened tensions between Greece and Europe could lead to financial contagion to Portugal. It compares the economic and financial situations of Greece and Portugal across several key areas to assess the potential for contagion.

Main Points

1. Banks' Situation: No Advantage to Portugal

Both Greece and Portugal experience significant bank deposit withdrawals.
Their banking systems are considered very risky.
While Portugal has lower interest rates on loans, credit growth has not improved.
Lending to the private sector has not increased significantly in either country.

2. Public Finances: Slight Advantage to Portugal

Both countries have reduced fiscal deficits, but Portugal's public debt remains very high.
Portugal has a slightly better fiscal position than Greece, with lower public debt relative to GDP.
The reduction in fiscal deficit is due to higher tax burdens and spending cuts in both countries.

3. Labour Market and Social Situation: Slight Advantage to Portugal

Employment is increasing in both countries, but Greece has a significantly higher unemployment rate.
Poverty rates are high in both, but Greece is worse off.
Real per capita wages have fallen more sharply in Greece than in Portugal.
Portugal has a more skilled workforce compared to Greece, with a higher proportion of individuals with higher education.

4. Companies and Investment: No Advantage to Portugal

Profitability has improved in both countries due to wage declines, but Greece's level of profitability is higher.
Productive investment has declined more in Greece than in Portugal.
Portugal has a slightly higher corporate debt level compared to Greece.
Both countries face challenges in competitiveness and foreign trade.

5. Households' Situation: No Advantage to Portugal

Real household payrolls and consumption are increasing in both countries.
Household debt is higher in Portugal than in Greece.
Housing investment is collapsing in Greece but not in Portugal.

6. Competitiveness and Foreign Trade: No Advantage to Portugal

Exports are growing more in Portugal than in Greece.
Both countries have returned to current-account surpluses.
Despite a decline in productivity, Greece has improved its cost competitiveness more due to drastic wage cuts.
Unit labour costs are similar in both countries and lower than in other eurozone nations.

7. Sectoral Structure of the Economy: Slight Advantage to Portugal

Both countries have a low proportion of "sophisticated" sectors (industry, business services), but Portugal's is slightly higher.
Greece has an external deficit for all industrial products, while Portugal has a surplus in intermediate goods and services.
Portugal's sectoral structure is more resilient, with better performance in services and tourism.
R&D spending is lower in Greece than in Portugal, indicating a weaker industrial base.
Public investment has declined in both countries.

Key Information

Contagion Risk: The document concludes that Portugal's slight economic and financial superiority over Greece is not enough to protect it from contagion if the Greek crisis worsens.
ECB's Role: The absence of contagion is attributed to ECB interventions, such as quantitative easing and OMT (Outright Monetary Transactions).
Comparative Analysis: The analysis shows that Greece and Portugal face similar challenges in several areas, with Portugal having a slight edge in public finances, the labor market, and sectoral structure, but not in banking, competitiveness, or household debt.
Limitations: The document is confidential and intended only for qualified professionals and investors. It is not a personalized investment recommendation and should not be used as a basis for investment decisions without further analysis.

Conclusion

Portugal may have some slight advantages over Greece in certain economic and financial indicators, but these are not sufficient to shield it from potential contagion effects if the Greek crisis intensifies. The ECB's measures have been critical in preventing contagion so far, and similar interventions may be necessary to support Portugal in the future.

展开完整摘要