2022-04-04-亚太地区科技行业-在估值低谷期间_内存市场向上修正_LT价格趋势发生结构性变化_28页_1mb

📊 Global Memory Market Update: Upward Revisions & Structural Changes

📈 Market Forecast & Growth

• DRAM: 8% YoY growth in 2022 (revenue) fueled by 20% demand growth despite a 4% ASP decline. Revenues to reach $100.3B in 2022.
• NAND: 35% YoY revenue growth (up from previous forecast) with 32% demand growth offsetting a mild 3% ASP drop. Revenues to reach $78.5B in 2022.

Pricing Trends

• DRAM Prices: Revised to a milder decline from mid-teens% to ~3% YoY drop in 2022 due to weaker supply growth (e.g., WD/Kioxia fab issues).
• NAND Prices: Significant upward revision (+15% YoY growth) driven by supply constraints. Prices are set to modestly decline by only 3% in 2022 (originally forecast a 12% drop).

📊 Market Share & Structure

• NAND to overtake DRAM in market share by 2022, capturing mid-40% of the overall memory market (previously held in 2016), maintaining this share gain through FY23.
• Revenue Upside: Nand's revenue growth (11% YoY) outpaces DRAM’s (7%), contributing to memory market growth of 19% in 2022, reaching $203B by FY23.

SLT Price Trend

Average annual price declines for both DRAM and NAND are slowing over time (DRAM: mid-20% in the last 25 years, NAND: high-teens% in the last 20 years). The long-term trend points to a continuation of modest price stability, supporting profit sustainability through cost reduction via technology migration (e.g., 176L NAND).

Demand Outlook by Application

• Server DRAM: Fastest-growing segment at high 30% share by 2023, fueled by robust data center spend and US hyperscalers.
• Smartphone/NBPC DRAM: Content growth is lukewarm due to high base and subdued upgrades, contributing around low-30% share.
• SSDs: Driving NAND demand with healthy growth, especially in enterprise and client applications.

Valuation & Investment Recommendation

• NAND Preferred: Earlier-than-expected price hikes due to tight supply dynamics support higher valuations. Recommended stocks include SK Hynix (P/E and P/B undervalued vs. Micron).
• Micron (MU) and SK Hynix (000660) are favored, with the valuation gap narrowing due to NAND price strength. SK Hynix is at a 25%/31% discount to Micron on FY22E P/E/P/B.

Key Metrics (2022E)

⚠️ Headwinds

• Geopolitical/Macro Uncertainty: Inflation and ongoing supply chain disruptions impact consumer electronics demand (e.g., PCs, smartphones).
• China NAND Issue: YMTC faces yield challenges (128L NAND yield ~50%). Despite capacity expansion (300k wpm by 2023), market share and credibility are hindered.

This analysis highlights amidst euphoria and concerns, the semiconductor market shows signs of sustained recovery, especially in NAND and server-based segments. Valuations are trending higher, but macro uncertainty remains a key risk factor.