20250411-招银国际-CMBI_Credit_Commentary__Seazen__Refinancing_risk_remains_manageable_3页_649kb
报告摘要
CMBI Credit Commentary Summary
Core Content
The CMBI Credit Commentary provides an analysis of Seazen's financial position and creditworthiness, with a focus on its debt structure, refinancing risk, and operational performance. The report highlights the company's resilience in FY24, despite a decline in property sales, and reaffirms its buy recommendation on certain bonds.
Key Financial Highlights
Bond Overview
| Security Name | Outstanding (USD mn) | Maturity | Coupon | Offer Price | YTM (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FUTLAN 4.45 07/13/25 | 300.0 | 7/13/2025 | 4.45% | 97.6 | 14% |
| FTLNHD 4 5/8 10/15/25 | 300.0 | 10/15/2025 | 4.625% | 95.1 | 15% |
| FTLNHD 4 1/2 05/02/26 | 404.0 | 5/2/2026 | 4.5% | 91.7 | 13% |
FY24 Financial Performance
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract Sales | 116,049.0 | 75,983.0 | 40,171.0 | -47.1% |
| Revenue | 116,540.6 | 119,463.5 | 89,226.5 | -25.3% |
| Property Sales | 104,882.7 | 107,336.4 | 76,041.0 | -29.2% |
| Rental Income | 5,087.6 | 5,697.5 | 6,556.2 | +15.1% |
| Other Recurring Income | 6,570.4 | 6,429.7 | 6,629.4 | +3.1% |
| Gross Profit | 15,938.8 | 16,168.0 | 14,984.4 | -7.3% |
| Profit Before Tax | 3,694.5 | 5,019.7 | 4,193.9 | -16.4% |
| Attributable Net Core Profit | 185.4 | 157.7 | 632.2 | +300.9% |
| Recognized GFA (mn sqm) | 13.2 | 13.0 | 9.9 | -24.2% |
| Recognized ASP/sqm | 7,947.4 | 8,254.9 | 7,716.5 | -6.5% |
| Overall Gross Margin | 13.7% | 13.5% | 16.8% | - |
| Rental Gross Margin | 72.6% | 69.9% | 70.2% | - |
| Net Core Profit Margin | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% | - |
Financial Flexibility
- Seazen has a headroom of cUSD3bn for additional loans against its IPs.
- Unpledged IPs are valued at RMB25-30bn (USD3.5-4bn).
- The company can potentially raise cRMB13-15bn (USD1.8-2bn) through secured financing at a LTV of 50%.
- Total outstanding unsecured public bonds amount to cUSD1.2bn.
Debt Structure
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Debts (RMB mn) | 109,743.3 | 106,406.7 | 63,132.4 |
| Net Debts (RMB mn) | 77,290.0 | 86,906.8 | 46,933.3 |
| Net Gearing (%) | 51.3% | 49.7% | 52.5% |
| Cash/Short Term Debts | 0.9x | 0.8x | 0.8x |
| Adjusted Liabilities/Assets (%) | 68.9% | 66.6% | 66.2% |
Main Points and Views
- Refinancing Risk: Refinancing risk remains manageable due to Seazen's high quality IPs and financial flexibility.
- Operational Resilience: FY24 results showed resilience, with a significant rebound in attributable net core profit and an increase in overall gross margin.
- IP Contributions: The growing contribution from high-margin IPs helped offset the decline in property sales and margin pressure.
- SG&A Reduction: SG&A costs declined sharply, contributing to the improved profitability.
- Mall Occupancy: Mall occupancy rate increased to 98.0% in FY24, indicating strong demand.
- Commercial Income: Aggregate commercial income from IPs reached RMB12.8bn in FY24, up 13.1% yoy and growing at a CAGR of 25.8% over the past 5 years.
- Refinancing Strategy: The company repaid USD800mn in bonds and raised RMB2.92bn (cUSD400mn) in onshore CBICL-guaranteed bonds in FY24.
- Related Party Transactions: Seazen has a RMB346.7mn of related transactions with S-Enjoy Service, which is 68.9% owned by the controlling shareholder.
- Investment Recommendation: The report maintains a buy recommendation on FUTLAN/FTLNHDs due to the favorable risk-return profile and manageable refinancing risk.
Important Disclosures
- The report is intended for major US institutional investors only.
- In the UK, the report is only provided to persons falling within Article 19(5) or Article 49(2) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.
- In Singapore, the report is distributed by CMBISG, an Exempt Financial Adviser, and may only be provided to Accredited Investors, Expert Investors, or Institutional Investors.
- The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy/sell securities and is not tailored to individual investors.
- CMBIGM does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and may have conflicts of interest.
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