2004年-世界发展银行全球_Financial_Sector_Assessment_Program_Update___Republic_of_Kazakhstan_-_Bank_Profitability_and_Competition_24页_843kb

报告摘要

Kazakhstan Banking Sector Profitability and Competition Analysis (August 2004)

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the profitability and competition in Kazakhstan's banking sector, highlighting the structural and policy factors influencing these aspects. It is part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) update and is produced by the World Bank and IMF.

Main Points

I. Background

The Kazakhstani banking sector has experienced rapid growth since 2000, driven by strong economic performance.
Financial intermediation and depth have increased steadily since the Russian economic crisis in 1998.
Macroeconomic stability, sound banking practices, and improved judicial procedures have contributed to this growth.
The number of licensed banks has declined from 71 in 1998 to 36 in 2003 due to stricter prudential regulations.
The number of bank branches also declined from 458 in 1998 to 359 in January 2004.
Over 60% of loans go to the industry and trade sectors, while agriculture receives around 10–12%.
Household lending is increasing, particularly in mortgage credit, which has grown fourfold in 2003.
Around 55.5% of credit and 47% of deposits are in foreign currency (mainly USD).
The banking system has been relatively resilient to external shocks due to its long foreign exchange position.

II. Profitability and Interest Spreads

Interest rate spreads have declined since 1996, but remain higher than most comparable countries in 2002.
The spread is influenced by several factors: overhead costs, information gathering costs, loan-loss provisions, unremunerated reserve requirements, and scale diseconomies.
The three largest banks have higher provisions and interest spreads due to their focus on SME lending, which carries higher credit risk.
Halyk Savings Bank, which was privatized in 2001, has a different operational structure and is analyzed separately.
Profitability (ROA) of the aggregate banking system has increased despite lower interest spreads, indicating the influence of other factors such as foreign exchange revaluation gains and operational efficiency.
Non-interest expenses, including personnel and loan-loss provisions, remain high relative to operating income, with over 80% of operating income being non-interest expenses in 2003.
Fees and commissions have declined for most banks, except for Halyk Savings Bank.
The spread is also influenced by the inflation rate and economic freedom indices. Countries with higher inflation and less economic freedom tend to have higher spreads.
Kazakhstan has a higher interest spread than EU-accession countries, indicating less economic freedom and weaker institutions.

III. Efficiency of Banking Operations

Kazakhstan's banking sector remains inefficient compared to other countries, with higher operational costs.
The three largest banks are the most productive in terms of labor productivity and profitability.
The decline in interest spreads has not translated into a proportional decline in profitability, suggesting that other sources of income, such as foreign exchange gains and fees, have played a significant role.
The cost structure of the banking system is characterized by high non-interest expenses, which include overhead and personnel costs.
The ratio of non-interest expenses to deposits has decreased, but remains relatively high for Halyk Savings Bank.
The introduction of new technologies, such as ATMs and credit/debit cards, has improved productivity.

IV. Competition and Contestability

The banking sector in Kazakhstan is competitive within groups but not necessarily across groups.
The three largest banks compete with each other, but consider only some medium and small banks as competitors.
Competition is more pronounced in urban areas, while rural areas have limited banking presence.
The lack of license applications since 2001 suggests that entry into the banking sector may not be attractive.
Strong macroeconomic and financial policies, along with improvements in financial sector regulation and enforcement, are expected to enhance competition and contestability.
The introduction of a credit register and credit bureau has been proposed to improve transparency and reduce credit risk.

Key Information

Interest Spread Trends: Interest spreads have declined since 1996, but remained higher than many comparable countries in 2002.
Profitability Trends: Despite declining spreads, profitability has increased, especially for the aggregate banking system and Halyk Savings Bank.
Efficiency: Operational costs remain high, with non-interest expenses accounting for over 80% of operating income.
Competition: The sector is competitive within groups but not across groups, with a high concentration of banks.
Policy Implications: Continued macroeconomic stability, improved regulation, and transparency measures are crucial for enhancing competition and reducing spreads.

Tables and Figures

Table 1: Interest spread decomposition by different bank groups (1999–2003).
Table 2: Operating costs, efficiency, and profitability of different groups of banks.
Figure 1: Financial intermediation and PPP-adjusted per capita income.
Figure 2: Financial depth compared to other countries.
Figure 3: Ex ante and ex post interest rate spreads.
Figure 4: Cross-country relationships between interest spread, profitability, CPI inflation, and economic freedom.
Figure 5: Profitability, cost structure, and interest spread in different categories of banks.
Figure 6: Cross-country comparisons of cost and revenue of banking operations.

Conclusion

The Kazakhstani banking sector has shown improvement in efficiency and profitability since 2000.
However, the high concentration and limited contestability raise concerns about the level of competition.
The sector's resilience to external shocks is due to its foreign currency position.
Continued improvements in regulation, transparency, and macroeconomic policies are essential for further enhancing competition and reducing interest spreads.

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