ITIF-任务关键：全球能源创新体系并未蓬勃发展（英）-2022.1-20页_379kb

Summary: Mission Critical - The Global Energy Innovation System Is Not Thriving

Core Content

The global energy innovation system is not thriving, despite some progress in specific areas. The system is essential for achieving climate change mitigation goals, particularly the 1.5°C target. However, key indicators show that the system is still in weak condition, and urgent action is needed to close the innovation gap and ensure the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies.

Main Points

• Global Commitment and Progress: Nations made commitments at COP26 to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C, but these promises are not yet being fulfilled. The IEA emphasized the need for a step-change in action and ambition across all energy technologies and sectors.

• Weaknesses in the System: The global energy innovation system is underperforming in several critical areas:

  • Public RD&D investment in clean energy has only modestly increased (+29% since 2015).
  • High-value clean energy patents have stagnated (+0.2%).
  • Clean energy exports have grown slower than global GDP (+8% vs +13%).
  • Effective carbon rates (ECRs) are generally below the EUR60 benchmark.
  • Fossil fuel consumption continues to rise, outpacing clean energy growth.

• Bright Spot: The entrepreneurial ecosystem, particularly early-stage venture capital (VC) investments, has seen a significant rebound, increasing by 165% since 2015. However, this growth is heavily concentrated in the transportation sector, especially electric vehicles.

Key Indicators

1. Public Investment in Low-Carbon Energy RD&D

• Public RD&D investment has only risen modestly, with most nations failing to double their investments as promised under Mission Innovation (MI).
• Only 4 out of 34 countries achieved the doubling target.
• Energy efficiency and transportation RD&D have seen increases, while hydrogen, fuel cells, and CCS have received minimal support.
• Public RD&D stimulates private R&D, but the overall low investment has led to similarly low private R&D spending.

2. High-Value Clean Energy Patents

• Patent filings have leveled off, with CET patents accounting for only 8% of all high-value patents in 2018.
• Batteries and road transportation dominate the patent landscape, while renewables and other technologies have seen declines.
• International co-invention rates remain low, especially in major economies like the US and China, which could hinder knowledge diffusion.

3. Early-Stage Venture Capital Investments

• Early-stage VC investments in clean energy have increased almost threefold since 2015, reaching $31.7 billion in 2020.
• Transportation has dominated VC investments (78% in 2020), signaling a shift in focus from clean electricity to transport.
• While this reflects market potential, it may lead to an imbalance in innovation priorities, neglecting other critical areas like CCS and energy storage.

4. Successful Clean Energy Company Exits

• Successful exits (M&A, IPOs, private equity deals) have increased, indicating growing confidence in clean energy innovation.
• Solar and hydrogen/fuel cell firms have seen the fastest growth in exits.
• However, early IPOs of electric vehicle companies have raised concerns about overvaluation and potential market instability.

5. Clean Energy Technology Exports

• CET exports have grown by 8% since 2015, but this is outpaced by global GDP growth (+13%).
• Solar and wind dominate exports, with China leading in solar and OECD countries in wind.
• Hydrogen and fuel cells, despite their potential, have only generated $6 billion in exports (2% of total).
• Countries like Denmark and Central European nations show high export propensity relative to GDP.

6. Clean Energy Consumption

• Clean energy consumption has increased by 23.6 exajoules since 2010, but fossil fuel use has grown even faster (52.6 exajoules).
• Fossil fuel consumption continues to rise in developing economies and high-income nations like Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.
• Renewable technologies are still concentrated in OECD countries, China, and India, with many regions lagging in deployment and cost reduction.

7. Effective Carbon Rates (ECRs)

• ECRs are generally below the EUR60 benchmark, which is necessary to meet Paris Agreement goals.
• Road transport has the highest ECR due to fuel excise taxes, which are not primarily aimed at reducing emissions.
• Other sectors, such as industry and electricity, have very low ECRs, despite being major sources of greenhouse gas emissions.

Conclusion

• The global energy innovation system is in poor health, with most indicators showing stagnation or decline.
• The only positive trend is in early-stage VC investments, but this is skewed towards transportation.
• To meet climate goals, nations must increase public RD&D investment, especially in emerging technologies like hydrogen and CCS.
• The Breakthrough Agenda launched at COP26 offers hope, but progress must be accelerated to avoid missing the window for meaningful climate action.