2025-05-26-Bernstein-全球奢侈品_4月瑞士手表出口——美国关税一次性提前拉动；大中华区持续疲软_14页_538kb

QUICK TAKE 27 May 2025

✏️ Core Highlights

• Swiss Watch Exports in Apr 2025: Total exports increased by 18.2% YoY, reaching 2.5 billion CHF. The U.S. was the dominant driver with a 149.2% YoY surge (+851.9m CHF). Excluding the U.S., core markets like Japan and the UK saw flat or declining performance, while Greater China continued its weakening trend (down 30.5% YoY), reflecting persistent demand issues.

• Price Point Analysis: High-end watches (+3,000 CHF) saw a significant boost (+22.9% YoY), highlighting the tariff effect. The CHF 200–500 segment showed weakness (-1.2% YoY), while bimetallic materials led the export growth (+44.5% YoY), driven by both the tariff “pull-forward” and gold price inflation.

• Market Reaction to U.S. Tariffs: The significant export surge is expected to distort future data clarity. Companies are preparing for cautious growth, investment cuts, and cost reductions amid policy uncertainty. The outlook for 2H25 is cautiously constructive, but investing remains challenging.

📈 Investment Implications

• Downside Risks: Lower-than-expected growth in key markets, competition escalation (e.g., Cartier vs. Bulgari), and sustained weak demand in Greater China pose risks. Lowering Organic Growth forecasts for FY25e to -2% reflects these concerns.

• Selective Opportunities: Strong brands maintain resilience (e.g., Hermès, Richemont, Patek Philippe). Opportunities are niche, such as evaluating turnaround potential in core players like LVMH and Burberry. Brands with strong consumer relevance and long-term demand trends stand out.

🔍 Key Takeaways

• Temporary Export Boost by Tariff: The U.S.-driven export growth masks underlying weakening demand in regions like Greater China. Companies must navigate risks from prolonged uncertainty, impacting 1H25e performance.

• Selective Confidence in Luxury: While most brands are under pressure, certain luxury labels remain resilient. Turnaround efforts must focus on recapturing consumer attention and navigating evolving consumer preferences globally.

This summary condenses key insights from the analysis into concise key takeaways and actionable implications for investors. For specific ticker analyses, refer to the BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE and associated financial data.