2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Cambodia_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_75页_3mb

Cambodia 2018 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded its 2018 Article IV consultation with Cambodia on November 28, 2018, following discussions with Cambodian officials from September 19 to October 2, 2018. The consultation included a comprehensive review of the country's economic developments, fiscal policies, and macro-financial risks, with the goal of supporting sustainable growth and development.

Main Economic Indicators (2013–2019)

Key Points and Recommendations

Economic Performance

• Real GDP growth in 2018 is projected at 7.25%, driven by strong external demand and expansionary fiscal policies.
• Inflation is expected to remain around 2.5%.
• Growth is broad-based, with garment exports, tourism, and construction sectors performing well.
• The current account deficit is projected to widen to 10% of GDP due to higher imports.
• Gross international reserves are expected to increase to US$9.6 billion (5 months of prospective imports) by end-2018.
• Bank credit is expected to grow by 20%, with MFI credit growing at a higher rate, leading to a credit-to-GDP gap of about 10 percentage points.

Fiscal Performance

• Fiscal performance in 2017 was stronger than anticipated, with a deficit of 1.1% of GDP compared to the budget law of 3.9%.
• Tax revenues grew by 26% in nominal terms, partly due to one-off factors.
• Wage spending increased to over 7% of GDP, reflecting the government's election promise.
• The fiscal stance turned expansionary in 2018, with both current and capital expenditure expected to rise.
• Tax revenue is expected to remain stable as a share of GDP, partly due to VAT exemptions and import tariff reductions.
• The deficit is projected to widen to 2.2% of GDP, leading to lower government deposits.

Policy Priorities

• Fiscal sustainability: Contain spending pressures and prioritize growth-enhancing infrastructure and development spending. Modernize revenue administration and tax policies to improve efficiency and equity. Limit public guarantees and strengthen the institutional framework for Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs).
• Macro-financial risks: Address elevated financial sector vulnerabilities, especially in the real estate sector. Implement targeted prudential measures such as raising risk weights for real-estate lending, introducing a crisis management framework with deposit insurance, and improving regulation and supervision. Promote financial market development and local currency use.
• Inclusive growth: Continue structural reforms to increase competitiveness and diversification. Shift taxes to progressive sources and reorient expenditure towards priority infrastructure, health, and education.
• Governance and corruption: Strengthen fiscal governance through reforms in revenue administration, public financial management, and procurement. Improve the regulatory environment, strengthen the rule of law, and advance the anti-corruption agenda.

Recommendations

• Tax policy modernization: Reform property taxes, tax incentives, and excise taxes. Initiate preparations for a personal income tax (PIT) reform.
• Fiscal governance: Integrate the medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF) into the budget process. Develop a medium-term budgetary framework that uses macro-fiscal forecasts as a guide, sets ministerial ceilings, and eradicates dual budgeting.
• Public debt management: Develop a public debt management strategy (PDMS) that prioritizes concessional and semi-concessional financing and relies on international market borrowing only in case of shocks exceeding available buffers.
• Contingent liabilities: Implement a risk management framework to limit the present value of guaranteed payments. Strengthen the institutional framework for PPPs and ensure joint monitoring by the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and the National Bank of Cambodia (NBC).

Risks and Outlook

• Growth is expected to remain around 7% over the next few years, with inflation remaining subdued.
• Moderating growth is projected towards the potential level of 6%, due to tightening global financial conditions and weakening real-estate and domestic credit cycles.
• Downside risks include:
  • Domestic: Strong credit growth, concentration in the real estate sector, unregulated lending, and concerns about credit quality.
  • External: Global protectionism, trade sanctions, weaker-than-expected growth in China, and disruptions in correspondent banking.

The IMF encourages the authorities to take advantage of the current strong economic environment to intensify policies and structural reforms that enhance economic resilience, fiscal sustainability, financial stability, and inclusive growth.