20250611-Jefferies-邀请_研讨会_霍尼韦尔（Honeywell）与RTX公司_美国东部时间今日上午10_00_38页_2mb

Summary of Honeywell & RTX Thesis Update Teach-In

Event Overview

• Date: Wednesday, June 11th, 2025
• Time: 10:00 AM EDT
• Duration: 60 minutes
• Purpose: Provide an overview of upside to Free Cash Flow (FCF) for RTX and a deep-dive into the AT spin at HON.
• Participants: Open to all, with an invitation to email questions beforehand.
• Registration Link: https://jefaero.open-exchange.net/session/42876/meeting/598745

Key Speakers

• Sheila Kahyaoglu – US Aerospace & Defense Electronics and Airlines Analyst
• Greg Konrad – CFA, Equity Analyst
• Ellen Page, Kyle Wenclawiak, Conor Walters – Equity Associates

Core Content: Honeywell (HON)

1. Aerospace Segment Overview

• Aerospace Revenue: Accounts for 43% of 2025E HON sales.
• Segment Growth: Expected to expand ~8% annually through 2027E.
• OE Growth: Driven by +12% on easy comps (easier comparison base).
• AM Growth: Expected to grow ~6% annually, with Commercial AM facing tougher comps as air traffic growth normalizes to MSD+ range.
• Defense & Space: Contributes 40% of 2025E sales, growing at ~8% CAGR, supported by global defense spend, modernization, and sustainment.
• Profitability: Currently below the 27% target due to M&A dilution, aiming for 29% LT (long-term).
• Capital Deployment: Could be 9% accretive when rolled forward to 2027.

2. Spin Break-Up Pressure

• Valuation of AT: Estimated at $143/share.
• Spin Playbook: Leaves some lingering questions about the structure and timing.

3. Commercial OE Recovery

• Recovery Drivers: Rising OE rates and the non-recurrence of the BBD agreement.
• OE Growth: Expected to increase 23% YoY in 2025.
• Key Aircraft: 737 MAX and A320neo family are the biggest growth drivers.
• Production Rates:
  • 737: 352 units in 2025, stepping up to 480 (40/mo) in 2026 and 540 (45/mo) in 2027.
  • 787: 5.5/month in 2025, rising to 7/month in 2026 and 9.5/month in 2027.
• Content per Shipset:
  • 737: $0.6MM
  • 787: $2.0MM
• Commercial OE Revenue: Expected to reach $2,736MM in 2025E.

4. Commercial Aftermarket (AM)

• AM Revenue: Contributes ~44% of the total segment.
• Growth Outlook: Expected to grow ~9% in 2025E, a deceleration from post-pandemic levels.
• AM Revenue: Reached ~136% of 2019 levels in 2025, compared to ~111% for RPKs.
• RMU Opportunities:
  • Safety: Smart Landing, Smart Runway, IntuVue Radar Systems
  • Connectivity: JetWave In-Flight Connectivity, Aspire Satellite Communication Systems
  • Sustainability & Convenience: Predictive Maintenance, Flight Efficiency, Cabin Flight Services
  • Efficiency / Standardization: Auxiliary Power Units, BGA Cockpit Upgrades
• Contract Coverage: 85% of AM revenue is under contract for air transport/regional customers, while 80% for business jets.

5. Business Jet Segment

• Contribution: Accounts for ~20-25% of HON Aerospace Technologies segment sales.
• AM vs. OE: Biz Jet AM contributes ~65% of total biz jet sales, while OE contributes ~35%.
• Deliveries: Expected to rise ~13% in 2025 after ~7% in 2024, driven by new models like the G700.
• Avionics Revenue: Estimated to grow at ~12% CAGR, with a significant share in Gulfstream and Dassault platforms.
• Engine Revenue: Expected to grow at ~5% CAGR, with the Praetor 600 and 500 leading the growth.
• Biz Jet Revenue: Projected to expand ~8% annually through 2027E.

6. UAM and UAS Opportunity

• Estimated Opportunity: ~$30BB in the 2030s.
• Key Use Cases:
  • Air Taxi (UAM): Largest opportunity, with a $80BB market and HON's TAM at ~$20BB.
  • Middle-Mile Cargo: Expected to grow to ~$35BB, with HON's opportunity at ~$10BB.
  • Local Light Parcel: Potential in the ~$5BB market, with HON's TAM at ~$1BB.
• Content per UAM Vehicle: Estimated to be $0.2–$1.5MM, depending on the platform.

Core Content: RTX

1. FCF Upside

• FCF Upside: Estimated to be > $1BB from P&W and Raytheon.
• P&W Revenue Growth: Expected to grow at ~5% CAGR through 2027, supported by GTF (Geared Turbofan) with ~$35MM per unit.
• P&W Margins: Could reach mid-teens with self-help initiatives to align with engine peers.
• Raytheon CAGR Impact: Each 1% increase in Raytheon's CAGR could generate ~$100MM of FCF upside.
• Total FCF Upside: Estimated at ~$10BB in 2027E, compared to ~$8.8BB by JFE.

Main Points and Key Insights

• HON's Aerospace Segment:

  • Expected to grow ~8% annually through 2027E.
  • Commercial OE and AM are key growth drivers.
  • Defense & Space is a significant contributor, growing at ~8% CAGR.
  • Business jet growth is ~8% CAGR, with avionics driving the majority of the increase.
  • UAM and UAS represent a ~$30BB opportunity by the 2030s.

• RTX's FCF Potential:

  • P&W and Raytheon are the main sources of FCF upside.
  • P&W's GTF technology is a major growth enabler.
  • Raytheon's CAGR improvements could generate ~$100MM of FCF per 1% increase.
  • Total FCF upside for RTX is projected to be ~$10BB in 2027E.

• Challenges:

  • Commercial AM faces tougher comps as air traffic growth normalizes.
  • HON's profitability is below target due to M&A dilution.
  • Business jet AM is ~65% of total biz jet sales, but some smaller programs may experience runoff.

• Outlook:

  • The Paris Air Show 2025 may lead to target revisions for HON.
  • The spin of AT is under pressure, with a $143/share valuation.
  • The long-term growth for HON is expected to align with peer averages.