20150518-工银国际-VIEWPOINTS_EXPRESS_14页_469kb_469kb

报告摘要

Summary of Document Content

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the financial and macroeconomic situation as of 18 May 2015, including market reports, stock performance, economic indicators, and an analysis of Anta Sports Products (2020.HK). It also includes financial statements and valuation data for Anta.

Main Views and Key Information

Weekly Macro Monitor

Economic Slowdown: April data showed weaker-than-expected loan growth and M2 growth, which may have influenced the recent rate cut.
GDP Growth Concerns: 2Q GDP growth could fall below 7% if economic activities do not rebound in May and June.
Capital Outflow: Accelerated capital outflow in 1Q 2015 (USD 78.9bn) and a third consecutive quarter of falling forex reserves.
RRR Cut Expectations: Another RRR cut is likely in June to support lending growth and address economic pressures.
Inflation Outlook: A potential rebound in inflation in 4Q 2015 due to higher commodity prices may limit further rate cuts.
Monetary Policy: The State Council announced a Rmb 500bn increase in asset securitization pilot programs to boost loan growth.

Stock Market Performance

HK Equities: Hang Seng Index rose to 27,822 (up 2.0%) and H-share Index to 14,010 (up 1.7%) on 15 May 2015.
China Equities: CSI 300 Index fell to 4,617 (-1.8%), Sh Composite Index to 14,695 (-2.2%), and Sz Composite Index to 2,443 (-0.5%).
Asian Equities: Nikkei 225 rose 0.8%, Korea KOSPI fell 0.7%, and Taiwan TWSE fell 0.3%.
US/European Equities: DJIA and S&P500 rose slightly, while NASDAQ fell marginally. European indices showed mixed performance.

FX Rates and Commodity Prices

Global & Regional FX Rates: EUR/USD rose to 1.14, USD/JPY fell to 119.42, GBP/USD rose to 1.57, and others showed mixed movements.
Commodities: WTI oil fell to $59.7, Gold remained stable at $1,224.4, and Copper and Aluminum showed minor gains and declines respectively.
Interest Rates: UST yields and HIBOR rates showed minor changes, with UST 10y at 2.14% and HIBOR 3m at 0.39%.

Anta Sports Products (2020.HK)

Product Mix Upgrade: Anta is focusing on running product innovation and promotion, which is expected to improve gross margins.
Target Price: The target price is HK$19.7, with a BUY rating.
Valuation: The stock trades at 16.7x forward PE, which is above the historical average of 15.2x.
Key Risks: Intense competition from foreign brands and higher A&P spending.
Key Catalysts: Improved operating figures and sales from Fila and Anta Kids.

Financial Highlights of Anta Sports Products

Revenue Growth

FY13 to FY15E: Revenue is expected to grow from Rmb7,281.3m to Rmb10,487m.
FY16E to FY17E: Revenue growth is projected to slow slightly, from Rmb12,036m to Rmb13,569m.

Gross Margin

FY13: 41.7%
FY14: 45.1%
FY15E: 45.6%
FY16E: 45.9%
FY17E: 46.1%

Operating Profit

FY13: Rmb1,565.6m
FY14: Rmb2,018.9m
FY15E: Rmb2,462m
FY16E: Rmb2,893m
FY17E: Rmb3,307m

Net Profit

FY13: Rmb1,314.8m
FY14: Rmb1,700.3m
FY15E: Rmb1,979m
FY16E: Rmb2,309m
FY17E: Rmb2,632m

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Basic EPS: Rmb0.53 (FY13), Rmb0.68 (FY14), Rmb0.79 (FY15E), Rmb0.92 (FY16E), Rmb1.05 (FY17E)
Diluted EPS: Same as Basic EPS.

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio: 27.0 (FY13), 20.9 (FY14), 17.9 (FY15E), 15.2 (FY16E), 13.2 (FY17E)
P/B Ratio: 4.8 (FY13), 4.5 (FY14), 4.0 (FY15E), 3.6 (FY16E), 3.2 (FY17E)
EV/EBITDA Ratio: 23.6 (FY13), 18.5 (FY14), 15.4 (FY15E), 13.3 (FY16E), 11.7 (FY17E)
Dividend Yield: 2.7% (FY13), 3.4% (FY14), 4.0% (FY15E), 4.7% (FY16E), 5.4% (FY17E)

Balance Sheet Highlights

Total Assets: Increased from Rmb10,118m (FY13) to Rmb13,695m (FY17E).
Total Liabilities: Rose from Rmb2,769m (FY13) to Rmb2,923m (FY17E).
Equity: Increased from Rmb7,154m (FY13) to Rmb10,772m (FY17E).
Share Capital: Remained stable at Rmb242m.
Reserves: Grew from Rmb6,912m (FY13) to Rmb10,224m (FY17E).

Cash Flow Highlights

Operating Cash Flow: Increased from Rmb900m (FY13) to Rmb2,438m (FY17E).
Investing Cash Flow: Varies between positive and negative, with a net outflow of Rmb826m (FY13) and a net outflow of Rmb52m (FY17E).
Financing Cash Flow: Negative in most periods, with a net change in cash of Rmb341m (FY13) and Rmb748m (FY17E).

Key Risks and Catalysts

Risks: Intense competition from foreign brands, higher spending on advertising and promotion (A&P).
Catalysts: Improved operating figures, better sales from Fila and Anta Kids.

Summary of Valuation and Performance

Target Price: HK$19.70, with an upside of 9.6% from the closing price of HK$17.98 on 15 May 2015.
Performance: 2020.HK showed a 6.3% return in 1 month and 19.2% in 3 months.
Market Cap: Rmb44.91bn (HK$5.79bn) in FY15E.
Shareholding Structure: Anta International holds 55.02%, with free float at 33.61%.

Conclusion

The document highlights the ongoing economic pressures in China, with expectations of further monetary easing and a focus on the performance of Anta Sports Products. Anta's strategy of product mix upgrade and innovation is seen as a positive factor for its financial performance and gross margin expansion. Despite the challenges, the stock is rated as a BUY with a target price of HK$19.70, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential.

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