IAI-绿色交易观察（英文）-2021.5-31页_705kb

Green Deal Watch Summary (Issue No.4)

Core Content

The Green Deal Watch is a quarterly publication by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), launched in 2020 with support from Edison. It monitors the implementation of the European Green Deal (EGD), a strategy aimed at achieving climate neutrality by 2050. This issue focuses on the progress and challenges in the EGD's implementation, particularly in the context of the upcoming COP26 and the broader implications for EU climate and energy diplomacy.

Main Dimensions of the Green Deal

The report is structured around four key dimensions:

1. Driving the Green Deal

• Focuses on Energy and Transport, including the evolution of renewables, sustainable mobility, green gases, and hydrogen.
• Investments in wind and batteries are highlighted as significant drivers of the energy transition, with the Commission approving 2.9 billion euros for battery innovation.
• The Renovation Wave and New Bauhaus initiative aim to improve energy efficiency, but have not yet delivered substantial practical measures.
• Natural gas continues to be a contentious topic, with debates on its role in the green taxonomy and as a bridge to hydrogen.

2. Greening Industry

• The Commission has updated its Industrial Strategy, emphasizing strategic autonomy and reducing dependencies in key sectors.
• The EU Taxonomy for Sustainable Activities is under intense debate, particularly regarding the inclusion of nuclear, gas, and agriculture.
• Agriculture and forestry are seen as potentially "carbon neutral" under the taxonomy, which has drawn criticism from environmental groups.
• The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is gaining momentum, with discussions on its design, scope, and compatibility with WTO rules.

3. Supporting the Transformation

• The European Climate Law was finalized after months of negotiation, setting a 55% GHG emissions reduction target by 2030 (compared to 1990).
• The law includes a scientific advisory board and a process for setting a 2040 climate target.
• Just Transition Mechanism and EU financing tools are central to supporting the shift towards a low-carbon economy.
• The green recovery fund of €265 billion is being allocated through grants and loans, with energy efficiency and climate-related investments forming a core part of the recovery plans.

4. Strengthening Security and Diplomacy

• The EU is repositioning itself as a climate leader, particularly in international negotiations such as COP26.
• Climate diplomacy with the US is strengthening, though differences remain in approaches to emissions reduction (EU focuses on regulation, US on private investment).
• Relations with China are under tension due to the Nord Stream 2 project and potential sanctions, which could affect climate cooperation.
• The EU's engagement with Africa is emphasized, especially in the context of post-pandemic recovery and the African Green Deal.

Key Information and Analysis

• The Climate Law represents a major legislative milestone, but its national vs. EU-level binding nature is a potential weakness.
• Energy efficiency remains a neglected area, despite being a fundamental component of the EGD.
• The EU Taxonomy is a central tool for defining green investments, but its ambiguity and delays have limited its effectiveness.
• CBAM is expected to be proposed in June 2021 and could impact international trade relations, especially with China and the US.
• The growth of wind power and the renewed interest in Poland’s wind sector indicate a positive trend in renewable energy.
• The Biodiversity Strategy is progressing, with a 30% protection target proposed for the UN Biodiversity Summit in 2021, which could bolster EU leadership.
• The Portuguese Presidency has played a key role in finalizing key legislation and pushing for a green and digital recovery.

Conclusion

Despite challenges and delays in some areas, the EU is making progress in its transition towards climate neutrality. The ambition and complexity of the Green Deal require coordinated efforts across member states and EU institutions. The next steps include the finalization of the taxonomy, the implementation of the CBAM, and the delivery of the Adaptation Strategy. The EU must also maintain its global leadership in climate action while addressing internal coordination and external partnerships, particularly with the US and China, to ensure the success of the EGD.