2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_A_Simple_Method_to_Compute_Fiscal_Multipliers_33页_509kb

Summary of "A Simple Method to Compute Fiscal Multipliers"

Core Content

This working paper proposes a simple method to estimate fiscal multipliers for countries with limited data availability, termed the "bucket approach." The method groups countries based on structural characteristics and temporary factors to derive reasonable multiplier estimates. It aims to improve the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts and policy design by providing a practical alternative to traditional econometric and model-based estimation techniques.

Main Points

Fiscal Multipliers: Definition and Importance

• Fiscal multipliers measure the short-term impact of discretionary fiscal policy (spending or taxation) on GDP.
• They are crucial for macroeconomic projections and policy design, especially in times of large-scale fiscal actions.
• Traditional estimates are often unreliable or unavailable due to the difficulty in isolating the direct effect of fiscal measures from other economic factors.
• The paper highlights that underestimating multipliers can lead to unrealistic fiscal targets and misjudged debt adjustments, potentially undermining fiscal credibility.

Key Findings

A. Size of Fiscal Multipliers

• Advanced Economies (AEs):

  • First-year multipliers for government spending range from 0.4–1.2, while tax multipliers are generally lower.
  • Studies suggest that spending multipliers are typically larger than revenue multipliers in AEs.
  • The overall multiplier in normal times is estimated to be around 0.6, assuming two-thirds of the adjustment falls on expenditure.

• Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Low-Income Countries (LICs):

  • Fiscal multipliers are generally smaller than in AEs.
  • Some studies find negative multipliers, particularly in the long term or when public debt is high.
  • Tax multipliers are less conclusive, while spending multipliers are more variable depending on the cyclical position and monetary policy response.

Determinants of Multipliers

Structural Characteristics

• Trade openness: Countries with lower trade openness (import ratio to domestic demand < 30%) tend to have higher fiscal multipliers.
• Labor market rigidity: Countries with stronger unions and regulation (rigidity indices 0.8–1) have larger multipliers due to less wage flexibility.
• Automatic stabilizers: Smaller automatic stabilizers (public spending to GDP < 0.4) lead to larger fiscal multipliers.
• Exchange rate regime: Flexible exchange rates are associated with smaller multipliers as they can offset fiscal impacts.
• Public debt level: High debt countries have lower multipliers due to reduced credibility and confidence effects.
• Expenditure and revenue efficiency: Poor tax collection and inefficient spending reduce the effectiveness of fiscal policy.

Conjunctural Factors

• Business cycle: Multipliers are larger in recessions than in expansions.
  • This is due to hysteresis effects and credit constraints.
• Monetary policy accommodation: When monetary policy is constrained (e.g., at the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB)), fiscal multipliers tend to be larger.
  • At the ZLB, spending multipliers can be significantly higher than in normal times.
  • For example, a 1% spending increase at the ZLB can result in a multiplier of up to 4 in the U.S. (Erceg and Lindé, 2010).

Persistence of Fiscal Multipliers

• The persistence of fiscal multipliers is important for understanding the long-term effects of fiscal policy.
• The output effect of a fiscal shock tends to vanish within five years, even if the shock is permanent.
• The second-year multiplier is 10–30% higher than the first-year one.
• Permanent fiscal shocks (e.g., public investment or corporate tax changes) may have longer-lasting effects, with multipliers increasing over time.
• Monetary policy response can reduce the persistence of fiscal multipliers by offsetting the impact of the shock.

The Bucket Approach

Overview

• The bucket approach groups countries into three categories based on structural characteristics.
• It is designed to provide reasonable multiplier estimates for countries where empirical data is scarce.
• The method uses findings from AEs to estimate multipliers for EMEs and LICs.

Steps

1. Assign scores to countries based on the presence of structural characteristics associated with large multipliers.
2. Group countries into buckets with similar multiplier values.
3. Use the bucket groupings to derive overall multiplier estimates for countries with limited data.

Considerations

• The method takes into account temporary factors, such as the state of the business cycle.
• It can also serve as a cross-check for countries with existing estimates.
• The approach is not without limitations, and further research is needed to refine it.

Key Tables and Data

• Table 1 and Table 2 summarize narrative approach estimates for tax and spending multipliers in AEs.
• Table 3 lists factors that may increase or decrease fiscal multipliers in EMEs and LICs.
• Table 4 shows how multipliers vary with the business cycle.
• Table 5 highlights the effect of the ZLB on fiscal multipliers.

Conclusion

• The paper emphasizes the importance of fiscal multipliers in policy design and macroeconomic forecasting.
• It proposes the bucket approach as a practical solution for countries with limited data.
• The method is based on structural characteristics and conjunctural factors, and can be used to improve the accuracy of fiscal multiplier estimates in the absence of reliable empirical data.