2022-03-06-瑞士信贷集团-马来西亚_2021年第四季度的结果与2022年的谨慎指导一致_21页_909kb

Malaysia Banks Sector 4Q21 Results Summary

Core Content Overview

The Malaysia banks sector reported 4Q21 results that were mostly in line with expectations, with some banks exceeding management's guidance. However, the 2022 ROE guidance appears conservative due to uncertainties in the economic outlook and debt servicing trends post-loan moratoriums. The report highlights key performance indicators, including net profit, NIM, NOll, credit cost, and capital buffers, and provides an outlook on dividend potential and valuation.

Key Highlights

• 4Q21 Net Profit: Most banks met or exceeded expectations, with Alliance continuing to surpass street's earnings expectations.
• ROE Guidance for 2022: Banks seem cautious, setting conservative targets. Maybank is the most optimistic among large-cap banks.
• Capital Buffers: All banks in the coverage universe have CET1 ratios exceeding 13%, indicating strong capital positions. RHB, Alliance, Maybank, Public, and CIMB have significant surplus capital, offering potential for dividend increases and ROE improvements.
• Dividend Outlook: CIMB, HL Bank, Maybank, Public, and RHB announced higher dividends YoY, with RHB and Alliance showing the most potential for increased payout ratios.
• Top Picks: Maybank, RHB, and CIMB are highlighted as top picks due to their undemanding valuations and potential for positive surprises in earnings and dividends. Alliance is also favored among smaller banks.

Main Trends and Performance

Loan Growth

• Loan growth accelerated in 4Q21 across all banks.
• Banks expect a slight increase in loan growth in 2022, focusing on retail and SME segments.

NIM Performance

• NIM for 4Q21 exceeded management's guidance.
• Cautious outlook for 2022 NIM due to anticipated funding cost pressures.
• Sensitivity analysis shows that each 25 bps OPR hike could improve NIM by 1-4 bps, depending on the bank.

NOll Trends

• Cumulative NOll for 4Q21 was weaker YoY, mainly due to lower investment and trading income.
• CIMB was the only bank that managed to grow NOll YoY, as it avoided bond market weakness.

Credit Cost

• Credit cost was better than expected in 4Q21, indicating improved asset quality.
• Banks are cautious about 2022 credit cost guidance, expecting provisions to revert to pre-pandemic levels by 2023.

Cost Management

• All banks except Alliance improved their cost-to-income ratios (CIR).
• Cost inflation remained at low single-digit levels, but banks anticipate higher cost pressures in 2022 due to easing movement restrictions and increased IT spending.

Valuation and Investment Outlook

• Public Bank is rated UNDERPERFORM due to its premium valuation, despite strong core performance.
• HLB is rated NEUTRAL, with a 13x FY22E P/E and 1.4x P/B, while HLFG is preferred for its undemanding valuation.
• Maybank trades at 1.2x P/BV and 12x 2022E P/E, with a 7% dividend yield.
• RHB offers a 6% dividend yield and trades at a 21% P/E discount to peers.
• CIMB is undervalued at 0.9x P/BV and 11x 2022E P/E, with potential for ROE improvements.

Key Figures and Data

• CET1 Ratios: All banks exceed 13%, with RHB at 17.3% and CIMB at 14.5%.
• ROE Guidance: Maybank has the most optimistic 2022 ROE guidance, while CIMB and RHB are cautious.
• Dividend Payouts: RHB and Alliance have the highest potential for increased dividends.
• Valuation Metrics: Public Bank is the most expensive in the region, while RHB and CIMB are among the most undervalued.

Conclusion

The Malaysian banks sector showed resilience in 4Q21, with results mostly in line with expectations and healthy capital positions. While ROE guidance for 2022 is conservative, there is potential for upward revisions as the year progresses. Banks are well-positioned to increase dividends, and Maybank, RHB, and CIMB are highlighted as top picks due to their strong fundamentals and undervalued stock prices. Continued focus on cost discipline and asset quality will be crucial in navigating 2022's challenges.