2011年-ECB欧洲央行_Developments_in_the_euro_area_balance_of_payments_to_March_2011_4页_237kb

Box 6: Developments in the Euro Area Balance of Payments to March 2011

Core Content

This summary discusses the developments in the euro area balance of payments for the first quarter of 2011, focusing on the current account and financial account.

Main Points

Current Account Deficit

• Deficit Increase: The euro area current account deficit widened significantly to €52.2 billion in the 12-month period ending March 2011, compared to €13.0 billion in the same period the previous year.
• Contribution Factors:
  • Goods Balance: The goods balance deteriorated, contributing to the larger deficit.
  • Income Balance: The income balance also worsened, though to a lesser extent.
  • Services Balance: The services balance improved, partially offsetting the deficit.
  • Current Transfers: The current transfers balance remained unchanged.
• Oil Trade Deficit: The oil trade deficit expanded to €190.6 billion in the 12-month period to February 2011, driven by rising oil prices.
• Services Surplus: The services surplus continued to grow, with both exports and imports showing positive growth rates compared to the previous year.

Financial Account

• Net Inflows Resumed: In the first quarter of 2011, the financial account recorded net inflows, reversing the net outflows seen in the previous quarter.
• Portfolio Investment: Net inflows in portfolio investment were the main driver, particularly in debt instruments.
  • Debt Instruments: A significant rebound in net inflows was observed in money market instruments, especially from non-euro area residents investing in euro area banks.
  • Equity Securities: Net inflows in equity securities also increased, with euro area investors reducing their foreign equity investments and foreign investors increasing their investments in euro area equities.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Net outflows in FDI resumed, primarily due to increased investments by euro area investors in foreign equity capital, likely linked to positive profit announcements and a favorable global economic outlook.

Long-Term Trends

• Combined Net Inflows: Combined net direct and portfolio investment inflows increased to €219.0 billion in the 12-month period to March 2011, up from €133.1 billion in the previous year.
• Equity Inflows: The increase was mainly due to higher foreign investment in euro area equities and lower euro area investment in foreign equities.
• Debt Inflows Declined: Net inflows in debt instruments declined, partly due to smaller purchases of euro area money market instruments by foreign investors.
• Other Investment: Net outflows in other investment remained broadly unchanged, reflecting both euro area residents investing abroad and foreign disinvestment in euro area assets.

Key Information

• Data Source: European Central Bank (ECB).
• Notes:
  • Figures may not add up due to rounding.
  • Financial account figures refer to net flows.
  • A positive sign indicates a net inflow, while a negative sign indicates a net outflow.
  • Seasonally adjusted data is used in the tables, unless otherwise indicated.

Summary Table Highlights

Conclusion

The euro area balance of payments showed a significant current account deficit in the first quarter of 2011, driven by a worsening goods balance and income balance, partially offset by an improved services balance. In the financial account, net inflows resumed, mainly due to increased portfolio investment, particularly in debt instruments and equities. The overall trend indicates a more favorable economic outlook and improved investment conditions in the euro area.