UBS_Equities-Asia_Equity_Research_Quantitative_Research_Review_Winter-112961104_43页_1mb

UBS Asia Equity Quantitative Research Review Summary

Core Content

This document presents the UBS Quantitative Research Review, a monthly report summarizing the views of UBS analysts on selected Asian equities. The report is designed to quantify the analysts' forward-looking assessments of companies, focusing on short-term factors that may influence their performance. It is important to note that these views are distinct from the 12-month equity ratings, which reflect a longer-term outlook.

Main Questions and Categories

UBS analysts respond to seven key questions categorized as follows:

• Industry momentum: Assessing the likelihood of improvement or deterioration in the industry structure over the next six months.
• Regulatory risk: Evaluating the regulatory or government environment's potential change over the next six months.
• Historic performance: Determining whether the company's performance has been improving, unchanged, or worsening over the last 3–6 months.
• Future earnings expectations: Analyzing the potential for earnings to surprise positively, negatively, or be in line with the current consensus forecast.
• Earnings risk skew: Identifying whether the earnings result is expected to have a greater upside or downside risk.
• Short-term positive catalysts: Determining if the company has potential positive factors that could influence its performance in the short term.
• Short-term negative catalysts: Identifying if the company is at risk from short-term negative events.

Key Findings

Industry Structure Outlook

• Most companies expect no change in their industry structure over the next six months.
• A few companies, such as 360 One WAM, ASE Industrial, and Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, anticipate slightly improving industry conditions.

Regulatory Environment Outlook

• The regulatory environment is mostly expected to remain stable (no change).
• A few companies, such as Ayala Land, Bank Jago, and Bangkok Bank, see slightly worsening regulatory conditions, while Apollo Hospitals Enterprise and Bank Central Asia anticipate slightly improving regulatory environments.

Historic Performance

• Most companies have experienced no significant change or slight worsening in their performance over the last 3–6 months.
• A few companies, such as 360 One WAM, AKR Corporindo, ASE Industrial, Alibaba Health Information Technology, and Astra International, have seen improvement in their performance.

Earnings Outlook

• The majority of companies are expected to report earnings in line with consensus.
• Some companies, such as ASE Industrial, Ashok Leyland, and BFI Finance Indonesia, are anticipated to report slight positive surprises.
• A few companies, such as ASPEED Technology Inc, Bank Mandiri, Bank Negara Indonesia, and Bank Rakyat Indonesia, are expected to report slight negative surprises.

Earnings Risk Skew

• The majority of companies are expected to have equal upside or downside risk.
• A few companies, such as Bajaj Auto and Bandhan Bank, show slight downside skew risk.

Catalysts

• Positive catalysts: A few companies, such as ASE Industrial, Astra International, and Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, are expected to benefit from short-term positive developments.
• Negative catalysts: Several companies, including ASPEED Technology Inc, Alibaba Health Information Technology, Bajaj Auto, Bandhan Bank, Bangkok Bank, Bank Central Asia, Bank Jago, Bank Mandiri, Bank Negara Indonesia, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Tabungan Negara, Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Syariah, and Bank of China (and its subsidiaries), are identified as having short-term negative catalysts.

Summary of Analysts

The report is authored by UBS analysts from the Asia region, including:

• Paul Winter
• Oliver Antrobus, CFA
• Cathy Fang, PhD
• Lynce Wang, FRM
• Aaron Guo, CFA
• James Cameron
• Amanda Belcaid
• Jaiwish Nolan

Their contact details are provided for further inquiries.

Access Information

• For latest responses, refer to the monthly report.
• For previous responses, consult previous UBS research reports or Quantitative Research Reviews.
• Contact your UBS sales representative or email qa@ubs.com for access to the report and details on pricing.

Conclusion

The UBS Quantitative Research Review offers a structured and forward-looking assessment of selected Asian equities. It provides insights into the industry and regulatory environments, recent performance trends, and potential short-term catalysts or risks. The report is a valuable tool for investors seeking to understand the analysts' short-term views, which should be used in conjunction with deeper analysis from published equity ratings.