20161107-招商证券_香港_-全球宏观经济每周观察（第61期）_美国总统大选前瞻_维持希拉里当选的基本判断_但特朗普胜出的可能性有所上升_17页_1mb_1mb

Macro Report Summary

1. US Presidential Election Outlook

• Election Date: November 8, 2016 (EST)
• Polling Trends:
  • Hillary Clinton initially led by 7%, but this has narrowed to 2% following the reopening of the FBI's email investigation.
  • Despite the controversy, Clinton remains the baseline case for victory.
  • Trump's chances have increased due to rising anti-establishment sentiment among voters.
• Key Factors Influencing the Election:
  • The email investigation has increased uncertainty and stirred populist sentiment.
  • Trump faces challenges in key swing states, especially Florida, where he only ties with Clinton in polls.
  • Trump's policies (anti-immigration, anti-global trade, tax cuts) may negatively impact economic growth and market stability.
• Potential Outcomes:
  • A Trump victory may lead to increased market uncertainty, but the political system's checks and balances are expected to mitigate severe consequences.
  • If Clinton wins, risks may still rise due to potential investigations and legislative challenges.
  • A close election result could lead to disputes, similar to the 2000 election, prolonging uncertainty.

2. US Economic Data Overview

• September Core PCE Inflation: Increased to 1.7%, in line with expectations.
• October Nonfarm Payrolls: Added 161,000 jobs, slightly below expectations but still showing stability.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (October): Rose to 51.9, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector.
• Federal Reserve Policy:
  • Maintained interest rates at 0.25–0.5%.
  • Kept the door open for a potential December rate hike, with a 67% probability based on futures.
• Market Impact:
  • The S&P 500 has been closely tied to Clinton's odds of winning.
  • Uncertainty surrounding the election has led to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and Treasury bonds.

3. Eurozone Economic Data Overview

• Q3 GDP Growth (Seasonally Adjusted): Rose by 0.3%, matching the previous quarter and expectations.
• Inflation (HICP):
  • October HICP inflation increased to 0.5%, slightly below expectations but the highest since 2014.
  • Core HICP inflation remained at 0.8%, indicating no significant improvement.
• Key Economic Indicators:
  • Manufacturing PMI (October) rose to 53.7, showing a slight expansion.
  • Consumer confidence and economic sentiment indices have been declining.
• Political Risks:
  • The Eurozone faces increasing political risks, which may affect economic growth in the fourth quarter.
  • Structural reforms are lacking, and ECB's monetary policy is becoming less effective.

4. Japan Economic Data Overview

• Bank of Japan Policy (November):
  • Maintained interest rates and QE scale, in line with market expectations.
  • Revised inflation forecasts downward, delaying the 2% inflation target.
• Economic Indicators:
  • The manufacturing PMI has returned to expansion territory in September and October.
  • Export and consumption data have improved from previous weak levels.
• Market Impact:
  • The yen has weakened due to the Fed's rate hike expectations, benefiting exporters.
  • The Japanese government has announced additional spending, potentially leading to fiscal stimulus.
• Future Outlook:
  • The BOJ may remain inactive unless the yen appreciates significantly against the dollar.

5. Key Data Publications

6. Key Forecast

7. Conclusion

• The US presidential election remains a focal point, with uncertainty rising regardless of the outcome.
• Clinton is still the baseline case, but Trump's chances have increased due to anti-establishment sentiment.
• The election could lead to market instability, with a potential impact on growth and investment.
• The Eurozone faces weak growth and low inflation, with political risks expected to rise.
• Japan's economy has shown some signs of improvement, but the BOJ may remain cautious in its policy stance.