20240102-招银国际-Asia_Credit_Outlook_2024__Value_hunting_in_a_shrinking_space_80页_3mb

报告摘要

Asian Credit Market Commentary Summary

Executive Summary

The Asian credit market experienced a volatile 2023, beginning positively with expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve pivot and strong Chinese recovery, but reversing due to persistent rate hikes. Key markets saw mixed performances: ACIG returned 7.5%, ACHY returned 1.1%, contrasting negative results from 2022. 2024 is projected to feature U.S. Fed rate cuts of 150bps, a weaker USD, and improved fund flow, but net redemptions may continue. The yield curve is expected to normalize.

Key Themes

2023 characterized by strong start, reversal, and late comeback.
2024 outlook: Fed easing, supportive policies, and shrinking investable universe.
Market remains momentum-driven with thin liquidity, leading to high volatility.
Focus on duration and yield pick-up trades, with belly of the curve preferred due to normalized yield curve inversion.

Investment Recommendations

Corporate Perps: Prioritize bonds like LEEMAN 5.5 Perp, NWDEVL series, PCORPM 5.95 Perp for high coupon step-up.
Bank Capital Papers: Buy BCHINA, DBSSP, ICBCAS, KBANK AT1/T2 notes.
China SOEs: Select CNBG, HAOHUA bonds for duration gain.
Consumption Plays: Focus on Macau gaming (MPELs, SJMHOLs), car rental (EHICAR), and TMT (MEITUA, XIAOMI).
Policy Beneficiaries: Target LGFVs and Chinese AMCs with government support.
Survivors: Include Chinese property SOEs with strong fundamentals.
Other sectors: Southeast Asia renewables and Commodities.

2024 Outlook

Expect improved performance from Asia ex-JP due to Fed cuts and weaker USD.
Credit spreads may tighten in sectors with improving fundamentals.
Sector-specific outlooks: Higher conviction for Macau gaming, car rental, TMT; neutral views on others like Chinese HY properties.

Appendices Summary

Detailed analysis of specific bond picks, corporate perps, bank papers, leasing companies, China SOEs, Macau gaming, car rental, TMT, LGFVs, Chinese properties, and Southeast Asia credits.
Incorporates fundamental, valuation, and technical perspectives with data on issuance, redemption trends, and policy impacts.

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