2013年-世界发展银行全球_Cairo_Traffic_Congestion_Study___Final_Report_297页_15mb

Cairo Traffic Congestion Study Summary

Core Content

This study, conducted by the World Bank team and executed by Ecorys in collaboration with Sets and Cambridge Systematics, evaluates the costs and causes of traffic congestion in the Greater Cairo Metropolitan Area (GCMA). The research is divided into two phases, with Phase 2 building upon the findings of Phase 1 to refine direct and indirect cost estimates, and to develop policy recommendations for congestion mitigation.

The GCMA is one of the largest mega cities in the world, home to 24 million people by 2027, and a significant portion of Egypt's economy and population. Traffic congestion is a major issue, affecting both the quality of life and economic productivity. The study highlights that two-thirds of motorized trips are made using public transport, such as taxis and minibuses, offering potential for reducing congestion through improved mass transit systems.

Main Points

1. Purpose of the Study

• To estimate the direct and indirect costs of congestion in the GCMA.
• To refine the estimates from Phase 1 and expand the data collection to include local roads.
• To develop policy recommendations to address traffic congestion.

2. Study Area

• The GCMA includes the governorates of Cairo, Giza, and Qalyubia, as well as new cities such as New Cairo, 6th of October, 15th of May, and others.
• The study area is divided into 11 districts, including Central Cairo, Central Giza, Heliopolis/Nasr City, and others.

3. Data Collection Approach

• Phase 1: Focused on 11 major corridors, including interurban primary arterial highways, regional primary arterial highways, urban expressways, and urban primary arterial streets.
• Phase 2: Expanded data collection to include surface city streets, categorized as Urban Secondary Arterial, Collector/Distributor Street, and Local Street.
• Data was collected using:
  • Floating car surveys to measure traffic speeds and congestion levels.
  • Manual traffic counts at 24 locations, including both classified and nonclassified roads.

4. Traffic Patterns

• Traffic volumes are higher during the morning peak (7:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.) compared to the evening peak (3:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m.).
• The directional split during the morning peak is approximately 49/51 (direction 1/direction 2), while during the evening peak it is more balanced at 52/48.
• Route 5 (El Doqi Street) had the highest traffic volume during both peak periods.
• Off-peak traffic volumes were also recorded, with speeds used to estimate free-flow speeds.

5. Causes of Congestion

• Poor traffic management and control.
• Inadequate road design.
• Lack of law enforcement and reckless driving.
• Unpredictable traffic influencing events, such as security checks and vehicle breakdowns.
• Limited alternatives to private car usage.
• Inadequate coordination between land use and transportation planning.

Key Findings

1. Direct Costs of Congestion

• Phase 1 estimated direct congestion costs at 14 billion LE (approximately $2.5 billion), or 1.4% of Egypt’s GDP.
• Direct costs include:
  • Delay costs for passengers and freight.
  • Travel time unreliability in passenger transport.
  • Excess fuel consumption and CO2 emissions.
  • Fuel subsidy costs.
• In Phase 2, additional data was collected to improve the accuracy of congestion cost estimates, particularly for non-major corridors.

2. Indirect Costs of Congestion

• Indirect costs include:
  • Safety costs related to accidents.
  • Vehicle operating costs.
  • Emissions other than CO2.
  • Effects on housing demand and supply.
  • Agglomeration effects.
• These costs were estimated using a variety of methods, including modal split analysis, emission rates, and economic impact assessments.

3. International Comparison

• The study compares the congestion costs in the GCMA to those in other regions, using benchmarks normalized by GDP and population.
• A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of key variables on congestion cost estimates.

Policy Recommendations

• A wide range of policy measures were evaluated, including both "soft" measures (such as enforcement) and "hard" measures (such as new transport infrastructure).
• Policy packages were developed, combining various measures to address traffic congestion effectively.
• The feasibility of each policy measure was assessed based on local conditions, expert opinions, and international experience.

Conclusion

The study provides a comprehensive understanding of traffic congestion in the GCMA, its economic and social impacts, and offers actionable policy recommendations. It emphasizes the need for improved traffic management, better infrastructure planning, and the promotion of public transport to reduce congestion and its associated costs.