2025-06-11-Jefferies-存储周报_是什么驱动了存储需求_21页_2mb

June 11, 2025 - Equity Research: USA REITs - Storage Sector

Market Overview & Demand Drivers

• Key Findings:
  • Generational Shift: Younger users (Gen Z, Millennials) fuel storage demand, with higher utilization rates (16%) vs national avg (11%) due to frequent moves/jobs changes.
  • Top Usage Reasons: Lack of home space (33%), moving (27%), remodeling (7%). Decluttering trends tied to housing affordability.
  • Regional Dynamics: Northeast has space constraints; South/Midwest rely more on housing transitions (moving/upsizing).
  • Discovery Channels: Local presence dominates (41% online); proximity-based decision-making.

Key Metrics & Trends

1. Rent Growth & ECRIs:

   • PSA: YoY ECRIs peaked at +24.2% in Q1 2025, driven by higher rate magnitude/frequency on new customers.
   • Others: EXR (+18.3x P/NTM FFO, HOLD), CUBE (-0.6% 2025 SS Revenue Growth), NSA (+2.9% growth).
   • Rent Roll Down: Highest cost component (86.8% in Q1 2025), recently found a bottom at +0.4% (Year 7 reporting).

2. Supply & Occupancy:

   • Supply Growth Sustained: Plans 3.0-4.0% annual growth over 2024-2026. Urban metro markets lead in under-construction/leverage.
   • Occupancy: South/Midwest markets have higher rates (e.g., Orlando >7.0% of stock).

3. Valuation:

   • Storage trades at 5.4% premium to REIT avg (historical avg 12%). Avg P/NTM FFO 17.6x vs REITs’ 16.7x.

Risk Assessment

• Common Risks: Oversupply, economic downturns (impact REITs differently), rising interest rates.
• Company-Specific:
  • PSA: Consumer-focused ECRIs; strong rent roll-down.
  • EXR: Slower ECRIs; emphasis on efficiency hiring.
  • CUBE: Deteriorating margins and revenue outlook.

Analyst Recommendations

• EXR: BUY, price target $204. PSA: BUY, $351. NSA: HOLD, $45. CUBE: HOLD.

Key Takeaways

• Generational transitions underpin sustained demand.
• Rental growth varies by REIT (PSA: accelerated, EXR: slower post-pandemic).
• Valuation remains vulnerable to cost factors and supply expansion.