2018年-世界发展银行全球_Democratic_Republic_of_Congo_Jobs_Diagnostic_64页_844kb

Democratic Republic of Congo: Jobs Diagnostic Summary

Core Content

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is facing significant challenges in job creation despite experiencing rapid economic growth. The report highlights that while the economy has grown, it has not created enough jobs to meet the needs of its young and expanding workforce. The key issues include unemployment, underemployment, labor inactivity, and informality. Additionally, demographic changes such as a high fertility rate and a growing working-age population present both opportunities and challenges for job creation.

Main Challenges

• Insufficient Job Creation: The economy has not created jobs at the scale and quality required, especially for youth and women.
• High Fertility Rates: Fertility rates remain extremely high, with a peak of 7.3 children per woman in 1995 and a decline to 6 per woman in 2012.
• Youth Bulge: By 2030, the DRC will have 66 million workers, requiring the creation of about 18 million new jobs in the next 12 years.
• Urbanization and Inactivity: Urban areas are experiencing high unemployment, while rural areas struggle with underemployment and a lack of productive jobs.
• Informal Economy Dominance: A large portion of the labor force is engaged in informal work, particularly among the inactive population in rural areas.
• Productivity Gaps: Productivity in the manufacturing sector is low, and most jobs are created in mining, utilities, and construction.

Key Findings

• Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction: Recent growth has reduced poverty, but more job creation is needed for further poverty alleviation.
• Structural Transformation: The shift of labor from low-productivity agriculture to higher-productivity services and industry has been a major driver of productivity growth.
• Gender Disparities: Women are less likely to be in wage employment and more likely to be self-employed or engaged in unpaid work.
• Education and Employment: While education levels have improved, the returns to education are diminishing. Higher education does not guarantee employment, but it improves income prospects.
• Labor Market Inactivity: A growing number of workers, especially women and youth, are not actively seeking employment due to lack of opportunities.
• Business Environment: The DRC has one of the worst business environments in the world, with poor infrastructure, uncertain regulatory processes, and inefficient bureaucracy contributing to underemployment and informality.
• MSMEs and Access to Finance: Micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) face significant barriers in accessing finance, especially from the banking sector, which is dollarized and has limited reach.

Main Recommendations

• Enhance Firm Growth: Remove obstacles to firm growth and encourage investment in productive sectors.
• Improve Labor Market Inclusiveness: Focus on creating jobs for women and youth, and improving the quality of employment.
• Strengthen Productivity: Promote productivity growth through structural and spatial transformations, and support the formalization of the economy.
• Support Education and Skills Development: Align education with labor market needs to improve employment outcomes.
• Improve the Business Environment: Address infrastructure, regulatory uncertainty, and bureaucratic inefficiencies to foster private sector development.
• Facilitate Urbanization: Create more wage jobs in urban areas to accommodate the growing labor force.
• Integrate Agribusiness into Value Chains: Improve productivity in the agricultural sector and support rural employment opportunities.

Supporting Data and Methodology

• The report uses firm-level data from Enterprise Surveys and household data from the International Income Distribution Dataset (I2D2).
• Productivity and employment growth regressions are used to analyze the relationship between firm characteristics and employment outcomes.
• The demographic dividend is identified as a potential opportunity for growth, but it requires timely and inclusive job creation to be realized.

Acknowledgments

The report was prepared by the World Bank Group's Jobs Group, with contributions from several economists and researchers. It is part of the "DRC Jobs" program (P161849) led by Maurizia Tovo. The report was supported by the Jobs Umbrella Trust Fund, which is funded by the Department for International Development/UK AID, the governments of Norway, Germany, Austria, and Sweden, and the Austrian Development Agency.

Conclusion

The DRC has the potential to benefit from a demographic dividend if it can create enough productive and inclusive jobs. However, the current business environment, labor market structure, and productivity levels are major barriers to achieving this goal. A programmatic approach is needed to address these challenges and ensure that the youth bulge translates into sustainable employment and economic growth.