20240319-大越期货-贵金属早报_21页_674kb

报告摘要

Fundamentals: Market pullback driven by reduced bets on June Fed rate cuts, gold remains in a high range. US 10-year Treasury yield rose 14 bps to 4.329% (4329%), USD index hit 103.5873, RUB weakened; COMEX gold futures ended +0.11% at $21,639/oz.
Basis: Spot gold marginally backwardated relative to futures, basis negative -$114.
Inventory: Gold futures delivery vault stock unchanged at 3081 kg.
Price Action: 20-day MA slope positive, price above MA; net long positioning in key contracts.
Expectations: Expected support from potential Japanese BoJ rate cut (may weaken yen and USD), but Fed meeting ahead could dampen rate expectations, leading to paused upside. Silver premium narrowing to ~$4/oz hints at limited domestic upside. Overbought sentiment may draw profits; lighten weight or short if above resistance. Key events: Japan BoJ decision, Fed meeting.

Fundamentals: Affected by higher copper prices and US/US data mixed economic signals; COMEX silver fell 0.56% to $25.24/oz.
Basis: Slight backwardation, basis -$3.
Inventory: Shanghai silver futures vault stock increased by 10,472 kg day-over-day, near 5-year low.
Price Action: 20-day MA up, price above MA; net long contracts, but some reduction indicates profit-taking.
Expectations: Copper strength supports silver; premium level at 500-550 points suggests persistent resistance. Fed and BoJ actions could amplify volatility, limit gains upper zone. Notable events like Japanese decision may trigger short setups, though demand constraints could weigh on Silver.

Dates and specifics not all noted; attention includes pending Japan BoJ policy decision, Australia RBA rate announcement, Swiss Basel Bank annual report; European ZEW indices, US new home starts; SPDR Gold ETF holdings steady around pre-crisis levels.

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