德国发展研究所-迈向绿色经济的过渡及其对质量基础设施的启示（英文）-2020.10-218页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of "The Transition Towards a Green Economy and its Implications for Quality Infrastructure"

Core Content

This study explores the transition towards a green economy and its implications for the development of national quality infrastructure (NQI) systems in developing and emerging economies. It emphasizes the critical role of NQI in enabling the diffusion and adaptation of green technologies, enhancing domestic value creation, and supporting technological learning and sustainability goals.

The research focuses on three key areas:

Past Trends in Green Technology Development: Using patent data, the study identifies which green technologies have seen the fastest innovation and how innovation has been distributed globally. It shows that green technology innovation has increased significantly since 1975 and again since 2005, with Asia, particularly China and South Korea, catching up with traditional leaders.
Expected Trends in Green Technology Diffusion: The study forecasts market development for green technologies in both emerging and developing countries by 2030. It highlights that emerging economies are expected to see moderate to rapid growth in most green technologies, while developing countries will likely see slower growth due to policy gaps, limited financing, and weak implementation. Local value added is expected to be high for mature technologies like solar PV and micro-hydropower, but low for highly sophisticated technologies such as battery storage and fuel cell vehicles, which will still rely heavily on developed countries for innovation.
Implications for Quality Infrastructure: The study identifies that QI investments are crucial to support the transition to a green economy. It outlines specific QI components that need to be improved, such as standards, conformity assessment, metrology, accreditation, and technical regulation, depending on the sophistication and maturity of the technology.

Main Viewpoints

QI is essential for green technology diffusion: QI systems are necessary to secure access to new markets, improve competitiveness, enable innovation, and ensure environmental and consumer protection.
Green technology innovation has accelerated: The rate of green technology innovation has increased over the past few decades, especially in Asia, with China and India leading in market development expectations.
Market development varies by country and technology: Emerging economies are likely to see faster market growth in most green technologies, while developing countries are expected to lag behind, particularly in highly sophisticated technologies.
Domestic value creation is limited in many green technologies: For most green technologies, especially those with high technological complexity, local value added is expected to be below 30% in developing countries, while emerging economies may see up to 70% of value added.
QI needs differ based on technological maturity and national capabilities: Countries that import most technologies require different QI interventions than those that produce components locally. The study highlights the need for targeted QI investments in specific sectors such as solar PV, energy efficiency, sustainable transportation, and waste management.
Policy and institutional coordination are key: QI systems must be aligned with national technology strategies to support effective green technology diffusion. The study recommends systematic needs assessments, capacity building, and international cooperation to enhance QI systems.

Key Information

Technological Domains and Green Innovation

The study categorizes green technologies into several domains, including renewable energy, energy efficiency, sustainable transportation, solid waste management, and sustainable agriculture.
Patent data is used to analyze innovation trends, with photovoltaic (PV), energy storage, and solar cooling showing high growth.
China and India are identified as key players in the green technology market, while Morocco and Ethiopia are used as case studies to illustrate the challenges and opportunities in QI development.

Quality Infrastructure Components

Standards, conformity assessment, metrology, accreditation, and technical regulation are the core components of QI.
System integration is important for technologies that require interconnected services, such as sustainable transportation, smart grids, and desalination.

Country-Specific Insights

India: Has a relatively well-developed NQI system, especially in energy efficiency and solar PV. However, solid waste management lacks effective QI support.
Morocco: Has made progress in renewable energy and solar PV, but faces challenges in metrology and implementation.
Ethiopia: Shows potential for green transition, particularly in renewable energy and transportation, but lacks QI infrastructure and policy coherence.

Recommendations

Invest in technology foresight and market observation to anticipate future QI needs.
Adapt NQI systems to match the technological and industrial ambitions of the country.
Conduct sector-specific QI needs assessments to improve coordination and effectiveness of interventions.
Enhance domestic capabilities in technical regulation, metrology, and conformity assessment.
Support international cooperation to improve QI systems in developing countries, especially in standardization, accreditation, and capacity building.

Conclusion

The transition to a green economy is not only a global necessity but also an opportunity for developing and emerging economies to enhance competitiveness, productivity, and sustainability. However, this transition requires robust QI systems to ensure effective technology deployment, local value creation, and technological learning. The study underscores the importance of policy alignment, institutional strengthening, and international collaboration in building quality infrastructure that supports the green economy transition.