德国发展研究所-绿色氢：对国际合作的影响：特别是南非（英）-2023.4-56页_1mb

Green Hydrogen and International Cooperation: Analysis with Focus on South Africa

Introduction

Green hydrogen, produced using renewable energy, is crucial for global decarbonization, especially for hard-to-abate sectors. This discussion paper examines its implications for international cooperation, focusing on South Africa. The paper highlights the booming demand for green hydrogen, its cost competitiveness by the mid-2030s, and the potential for developing countries with renewable energy advantages. It also addresses risks such as investment failures, environmental concerns, and socio-political challenges like the formation of enclaves.

Green Hydrogen Economy

Demand for green hydrogen is growing due to decarbonization needs in industries like steel, cement, and fertilizers, as well as transportation. Currently more expensive than fossil alternatives, but expected to become cost-competitive by the mid-2030s. Green hydrogen has seven key industrial linkages, including renewable energy generation, electrolysis, and conversion to derivatives like ammonia or methanol. Uncertainties include renewable energy scalability, electrolyzer capacity expansion, and efficient hydrogen transport.

Economic Pathways and Development Benefits

Green hydrogen offers opportunities for value creation, employment generation, and technological learning in developing countries. Countries with abundant renewable resources can attract investments, create jobs through industrial linkages, and achieve competitive advantages. However, without supportive policies, investments may lead to socio- exclusive enclaves with limited local benefits.

Risks and Uncertainties

Significant risks include technological instability, investment delays, and long-distance transport challenges. Many developing countries face barriers like regulatory hurdles, mineral shortages (e.g., platinum-group metals for electrolysers), and environmental concerns, such as water scarcity and land-use conflicts.

Recommendations for International Cooperation

Germany and other donors should promote sustainable development through:

• Capacity-building in technology foresight and industrial policy.
• Strengthening technical education and vocational training.
• Ensuring equitable benefit-sharing, including a Just Transition that addresses social equity.
• Encouraging science-technology cooperation and multilateral programs.
• Supporting renewable energy and grid infrastructure before focusing on large-scale exports.

South Africa Case Study

South Africa faces a severe energy crisis and urgent decarbonization needs. It has strong renewable energy potential and has developed hydrogen strategies focusing on local use and exports. Key recommendations include gradual entry into the green hydrogen economy, prioritizing renewable energy roll-out, enhancing local industrial capabilities, and ensuring inclusive benefit-sharing to support a Just Transition.

References

• Authors: Andreas Stamm, Tilman Altenburg, Rita Strohmaier, Ece Oyan, Katharina Thoms
• Institution: IDOS Discussion Paper / German Institute of Development and Sustainability
• Date: 2023