2025-06-13-Jefferies-百健公司（BIIB）_Leqembi在5月稳步增长-但未来市场规模（TAM）会翻倍吗_10页_653kb

Equity Research Summary: Biogen Inc. (BIIB)

• Rating and Price Target: HOLD, with a price target of $130.00 (-2% from current price).
• Product Overview: Biogen focuses on neurology, with key Alzheimer's drugs Leqembi and Kisunla. The company has a strong pipeline, including trials aiming to expand the Alzheimer's market.
• Recent Performance:
  • Leqembi sales in May 2025 reached $22.8M (+2% month-over-month), showing steady growth.
  • Kisunla sales increased to $11.3M (+12% m/m), gaining market share and outpacing absolute growth.
• Key Catalysts:
  • Phase III TB-3 preclinical Alzheimer's trial expected in 2027, potentially doubling the Total Addressable Market (TAM) if successful in earlier disease stages.
  • Upcoming regulatory filings (e.g., SubQ maintenance PDUFA on Aug 31, 2025), and advancements in plasma-based tests could improve access.
  • Positive read-through from competitor Eli Lilly's trial, which may support market expansion.
• Risks and Valuation:
  • Key risks include overestimation in sales data, IP litigation, competition, and potential delays in trial outcomes.
  • Valuation is DCF-based at ¥4,200 for Eisai (partner) and $130 for BIIB, supporting a HOLD rating with consensus expectations.