20210824-招银国际-金风科技-02208.HK-1H21_results_beat__accelerating_wind_farm_sales_to_boost_earnings_growth_4页_907kb

报告摘要

Goldwind (2208 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content

Goldwind (2208 HK) reported its 1H21 results, which exceeded market expectations. The company's net profit for the first half of 2021 was RMB1,746 million, representing a 42.6% year-over-year (YoY) increase. Despite a 7.8% YoY decline in revenue to RMB17.9 billion, the gross profit margin (GPM) surged by 10.4ppt to 27.6%, driven primarily by the wind turbine generator (WTG) segment, which saw a 8.2ppt YoY increase in GPM to 20.3%. This was attributed to an improved product mix and cost reduction initiatives.

The company also reported gains from the disposal of wind farm projects and equity interests, totaling RMB622.9 million. Looking ahead, Goldwind expects the WTG GPM to decline slightly in 2H21E due to increased onshore product shipments, but it aims to sustain profitability by accelerating wind farm construction and sales.

Main Points

1H21 Performance:
- Net profit: RMB1,746 million (+42.6% YoY)
- Revenue: RMB17.9 billion (-7.8% YoY)
- GPM: 27.6% (+10.4ppt YoY)
- WTG GPM: 20.3% (+8.2ppt YoY)
WTG Segment Analysis:
- WTG shipment: 2.96GW (-27.7% YoY)
- High-priced offshore WTG shipment: 795MW, contributing a GPM of 26%
- Full-year GPM guidance: ~18% for 2021, with a projected decline to 15.9% in 2022 due to increased competition and reduced offshore demand.
Strategic Adjustments:
- Avoided excessive price competition by forgoing some domestic tenders.
- Accelerated wind farm project development, with 2.5GW under construction.
- Downstream developers are showing increasing interest in acquiring wind farm projects rather than purchasing turbines for in-house development.
Valuation and Target Price:
- Target price (TP) was lifted by 48% to HK$17.6 per share.
- The analyst increased the price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple to 13x for FY22 earnings.
- Maintained a "BUY" rating, indicating potential returns of over 15% over the next 12 months.

Key Financial Information

Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec)

Metrics	FY19A	FY20A	FY21E	FY22E	FY23E
Revenue (RMB mn)	37,878	56,146	53,688	48,971	55,708
Net Income (RMB mn)	2,109	2,843	4,069	4,741	5,568
EPS (RMB)	0.51	0.67	0.96	1.12	1.32
YoY growth (%)	-42.1	31.4	43.1	16	17.4
P/E (x)	25.0	19.0	13.3	11.4	9.7
P/B (x)	1.8	1.6	1.5	1.4	1.2
ROE (%)	7.1	8.3	11.3	11.9	12.7
Net gearing (%)	48.6	52.2	63.9	80.3	84.4

Share Performance

Period	Absolute	Relative
1-mth	10.6%	23.4%
3-mth	5.9%	21.3%
6-mth	-21.4%	-4.1%
12-mth	92.8%	94.8%

Shareholding Structure

Shareholder	Percentage
China Three Gorges	24.3%
Anbang Insurance Group	13.5%
Free float	62.2%

Key Ratios

Metrics	2019A	2020A	2021E	2022E	2023E
Gross margin (%)	18.4	17.2	23.2	24.0	24.8
Net margin (%)	5.6	5.1	7.6	9.7	10.0
ROE (%)	6.9	8.3	11.2	11.9	12.7
ROA (%)	2.0	2.6	3.6	4.1	4.3
Total debt / equity ratio (%)	67.5	73.1	77.0	86.7	91.3
Net debt / equity ratio (%)	48.6	52.2	63.9	80.3	84.4

Analyst Recommendations

Rating: BUY
Target Price (HK$): 17.60 (up 45% from previous TP of HK$12.10)
Current Price (HK$): 14.56
Up/Downside: +21.0%

Conclusion

Goldwind's 1H21 results were strong, with net profit exceeding expectations. The company is focusing on improving profitability through strategic product mix and cost reductions, while also accelerating wind farm development to mitigate price competition. Despite challenges in the wind turbine segment, the company's strategic shift is expected to support earnings growth. The analyst has raised the target price and maintained a "BUY" rating, indicating confidence in the company's future performance.

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