世界银行-马达加斯加经济更新_弥合生产力差距（英）-2025_45页_7mb

Madagascar Economic Update: Bridging the Productivity Divide Summary

1. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook

• Economic Growth: Growth is estimated at 4.2% in 2024, driven primarily by services (led by tourism and telecom) and private investment. However, many sectors remain below pre-2020 levels.
• Poverty and Living Standards: Poverty rate remains high at 75.2%, with nearly 70% of the population living below $2.15/day. Growth has been insufficient to improve living standards significantly.
• External Position: Current account deficit widened due to falling exports (vanilla, cloves, cobalt, nickel) amid weaker global demand. Capital inflows supported reserves, though vulnerabilities persist.
• Inflation: Headline inflation decreased from 12.4% (2023) to 7.6% (2024), still above SSA average. Core inflation constrains private consumption.
• Fiscal Policy: Tax-to-GDP ratio remains low at 10.8% (far below 15% threshold). Revenue performance weak, with generous exemptions undermining collection.
• Outlook: Growth is projected to average 4.7% in 2025-27, contingent on structural reforms and implementation. Risks include climate shocks, external instability, and SOE underperformance.

2. Productivity Constraints at the Firm Level

• Key Challenges:
  • Limited access to finance: Only 8% of firms have bank loans, below SSA average of 19.5%.
  • Infrastructure gaps: 52% of firms experience frequent power outages, leading to 24% revenue loss.
  • Skilled workforce shortage: Only 30% of firms identify an inadequately educated workforce as a major constraint.
  • Innovation deficit: Only 10% of firms introduced process innovations in 2022, lagging SSA average of 29.4%.
• Gender Disparities: Female-led firms face greater constraints accessing finance, quality certifications, and skilled labor. Only 2.9% of female-led firms have international certifications vs. 8.8% for male-led firms.
• Productivity Drivers: Entry of high-productivity firms, within-firm upgrades, and selection effects need to be supported. Exports are associated with higher productivity.

3. Policy Recommendations

• Boost Productivity:
  • Improve worker training, facilitate technology adoption, and enhance access to R&D inputs.
  • Streamline business registration and tax procedures; reduce delays in reforms (e.g., mining code implementation).
• Expand Finance Access:
  • Develop leasing instruments and digital financial services to expand credit access, especially for SMEs and women-led firms.
  • Promote financial inclusion and digital payments.
• Address Infrastructure Gaps:
  • Invest in road and energy infrastructure; improve public services like electricity supply.
  • Support export-oriented firms through quality certifications and market access support.
• Fiscal and Macroeconomic Stability:
  • Enhance domestic revenue mobilization, improve spending efficiency, and reduce transfers/subsidies.
  • Strengthen fiscal risk management and ensure debt sustainability.

Concluding Notes

Madagascar’s recovery faces structural impediments like low tax collection, energy deficits, and governance challenges. Bridging productivity divides requires inclusive reforms targeting women entrepreneurs, infrastructure upgrades, and boosting private investment to support sustainable growth.