2017年-世界发展银行全球_Global_Economic_Prospects_June_2017___A_Fragile_Recovery_138页_5mb

Global Economic Prospects Summary: June 2017

Core Content

The Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report for June 2017 outlines a fragile global economic recovery. Global growth is expected to strengthen to 2.7% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018–19, aligning with earlier January forecasts. The recovery is characterized by improving manufacturing and trade activity, rising confidence, and favorable international financing conditions. However, the outlook remains vulnerable to downside risks, including trade protectionism, policy uncertainty, and weaker potential growth over the long term.

Main Viewpoints

Global Growth Trends

• Global activity is firming broadly, driven by a recovery in manufacturing and trade.
• Advanced economies are expected to grow at 1.9% in 2017, followed by a gradual slowdown to 1.7% in 2018–19.
• Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are projected to grow at 4.1% in 2017 and 4.6% in 2018–19, reflecting improved conditions for commodity importers and a gradual recovery in commodity exporters.

Key Drivers

• Commodity prices have risen moderately, although U.S. shale oil production has impacted oil price forecasts.
• Global trade growth is strengthening, with investment playing a more significant role than other components of aggregate demand.
• Monetary and fiscal policies are crucial for EMDEs to manage risks and support recovery.

Risks to Recovery

• Trade protectionism and economic policy uncertainty pose significant threats.
• Financial market disruptions and weaker potential growth due to structural challenges such as slow trade liberalization and declining productivity are also risks.
• Fiscal and external adjustment needs in some countries may dampen growth prospects.

Policy Challenges

• Rebuilding fiscal and monetary space is a priority for EMDEs to prepare for potential shocks.
• Structural reforms that support investment and trade are essential for long-term growth and productivity.
• Monetary policy in advanced economies is becoming less accommodative due to rising inflation and narrowing output gaps.

Key Information

Commodity Exporters

• Growth is expected to increase from 0.4% in 2016 to 1.8% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2018, slightly below January forecasts due to extended adjustment periods from low commodity prices.
• China, Indonesia, and Thailand are key contributors to EMDE growth, with China leading at 6.5% in 2017.
• Russia and Turkey are also showing signs of recovery, though with some volatility.

Commodity Importers

• Growth remains robust at 5.7% on average in 2017–19, supported by domestic demand and global trade recovery.
• Low-income countries are expected to see growth strengthen, aided by rising metal prices and ongoing infrastructure investment.

Regional Outlooks

• East Asia and Pacific growth is projected to be 6.2% in 2017 and 6.1% in 2018–19.
• Europe and Central Asia growth is expected to rise to 2.5% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018–19.
• Latin America and the Caribbean growth is projected to be 0.8% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018–19, with Brazil and Mexico showing improvement.
• Middle East and North Africa (MENA) growth is expected to rise to 2.1% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018–19, with Iran and Saudi Arabia being key performers.
• South Asia growth is projected to be 6.8% in 2017 and 7.3% in 2018–19, with India and Pakistan leading.
• Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) growth is expected to be 2.6% in 2017 and 3.5% in 2018–19, with Nigeria and Angola showing signs of recovery.

Special Focus

• Debt Dynamics in EMDEs: EMDEs need to act to rebuild fiscal space and manage debt sustainability, especially in the context of financial stress episodes.
• Arm's-Length Trade: Post-crisis trade weakness is attributed to reduced arm's-length trade, driven by factors such as slower trade liberalization and value chain integration.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the fragility of the global recovery, highlighting the need for policy coordination and structural reforms to support sustainable growth. While the recovery is broad-based and improving, external and internal risks remain significant, particularly in the context of global trade dynamics and monetary policy shifts in advanced economies.

References

• The report includes contributions from various experts and institutions, including the World Bank, IMF, and regional development groups.
• Data and forecasts are based on the latest available information up to May 24, 2017.
• The report is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license.