2025-05-22-Jefferies-PJM容量拍卖最新观点仍显示出合理强劲的结果_12页_703kb

PJM Capacity Auction: Updated Forecast Analysis

Overview

Jefferies forecasts a relatively robust outcome for the upcoming PJM capacity auction (2026/27), priced at $295/MW-day, based on a supply stack of 136GW. This represents a 9% increase from the last auction's clearing price, reflecting adjustments for regulatory changes, new supply, and demand responsiveness. However, confidence remains cautious due to uncertainties in demand response and deactivation risks.

Key Drivers

Supply Factors

• Net Supply Additions: PJM anticipates ~0.5GW net additions in 2025/26, primarily driven by demand response (1.9GW incremental), must-run units (2.1GW), RRI projects (limited at ~150MW), plant withdrawals (e.g., Middle River's Elgin plant), and deactivation queues (~3.6GW).
• RRI Projects: 51 projects totaling ~11.8GW were fast-tracked under PJM’s RRI initiative, but limited (~150MW) capacity will be available for the 2026/27 auction. Most are gas- and battery-dominated, with heavy reliance on new construction (78%) coming online by 2030–2031.

Demand Factors

• Demand Curve: The effective demand/supply gap remains 2.0GW, leading to a projected clearing price of $295/MW-day. However, alternative sources suggest a narrower 1.5GW gap.
• Demand Response (DR): DR is a volatile factor; last year’s auction saw a~1.9GW reduction in cleared capacity, but full recovery is possible. Increased participation from industrial/commercial customers and potentially data centers is expected.

Uncertainties and Risks

• Deactivation Withdrawals: ~3.6GW of capacity is formally requested for deactivation, but most (~2.7GW coal) face reliability analysis, making short-term participation uncertain. Outer-year auctions (e.g., 2028–2030) may see exaggerated gaps due to major coal plant retirements (e.g., Rockport Units).
• Supply-Side Volatility: Coal deactivation is time-bound (~2028–2029), while demand continues to accelerate. PJM may explore interregional imports if domestic supply gaps widen.
• Regulatory Changes: EE participation was removed from capacity markets (FERC-approved), impacting supply stack assumptions.

Sensitivity Analysis

• Removing EE deductions increases supply clearing to 137.6MW, driving prices toward $187/MW-day.
• Alternative scenarios include:
  • Withdrawals from deactivation queues
  • Increased DR participation
  • Impact of outer-year supply-demand dynamics (>~$295/MW-day for later auctions).

Analyst Bias

Jefferies maintains a conservative bias, suggesting clearing prices close to $295/MW-day, acknowledging potential downward pressure. A 9% year-over-year increase signals optimism, but caveats underscore risks like reduced new supply timelines and regulatory shifts.

Forward-Looking Outlook

• Near-Term (2026/27): Auction likely reflects moderate price increases amid tight short-term supply.
• Long-Term (2028/29+): Widening coal retirements and growing demand could lead to steeper gaps, possibly necessitating DR expansion, data center involvement, and cross-regional solutions.

Key Exhibits Prioritized:

• Supply stack breakdown (Exhibit 2): Net additions and withdrawals.
• Deactivation timelines (Exhibit 5): Coal domination and phased removals.
• Sensitivity analysis (S/D curve intersection): Impact of EE removal and withdrawals.