浑水-浑水做空YY全文：一个由机器人构成的虚拟王国（英文）-2020.11-71页_4mb

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Core Content

• Terms of Use: These terms govern the use of current reports published by Muddy Waters Research and supersede any prior terms for older reports.
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• Fraudulent Activity: The reports are based on extensive due diligence and indicate that YY Inc. and its subsidiaries, such as Bigo, are involved in significant fraudulent activities.
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Main Points

• User Data and Revenue Fraud: Muddy Waters Research concluded that a significant portion of YY's reported revenue is fraudulent.
• Fraudulent Revenue Estimates:
  • Approximately 84% of YY's reported consolidated revenue appears to be fraudulent.
  • Using more conservative assumptions, the fraudulent revenue is estimated at 73%.
  • ~90% of YY Live's livestreaming revenue is fraudulent.
  • ~80% of YY Live's online dating revenue is fraudulent.
  • ~80% of Bigo's revenue is fraudulent, with conservative estimates suggesting ~60% fraud.
• Methods of Fraud:
  • YY-Controlled PUs: Users with IP addresses or device IMEIs linked to YY's internal network or servers.
  • Round-tripping: Performers using their own accounts to send gifts to themselves or others in a controlled network.
  • Bot Farms: Large-scale use of bots to simulate user activity and inflate revenue figures.
• Case Studies:
  • Modern Brothers: A purported top performer whose revenue was found to be mostly fake.
  • Big Li: A top performer whose gift contributions were largely from a single contributor.
  • RCT_Khan: A Bigo performer who received a large amount of gifts while not actively broadcasting.
  • Liu Yishou: A performer who openly joked about YY being a scam.
• Data Sources and Techniques:
  • XHL (Xiaohulu): A third-party data analytics service used to track gift transactions and user data.
  • Google Chrome Developer Tools: Used to collect and analyze transaction data from YY Live.
  • Sampling: Random sampling of users in Wuhan and other regions during the lockdown period showed a high percentage of fraudulent activity.
  • IMEI Sharing: A key method to identify fake users linked to YY's internal network.
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  • Muddy Waters Entities do not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of the information.
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Key Information

• Report Date: November 18, 2020
• Industry: Internet Fraud
• Company: Joyy Inc. (YY)
• Stock Price: $100.19
• Market Cap: $8 billion
• Average Daily Volume: $109.5 million

Summary of Fraudulent Activities

• YY Live Fraud:
  • ~90% of gift revenue is fake.
  • ~48% of gift revenue originated from YY-controlled PUs.
  • ~24.9% of PUs were identified as controlled by YY through IMEI sharing.
• Bigo Fraud:
  • ~80% of Bigo's revenue is fraudulent.
  • The company has a history of changing auditors and receiving going concern opinions.
  • Bigo's PRC unit appears to be largely fake.
• Revenue Inflation:
  • Channel owners are often former YY employees.
  • Financial statements for top channel owners show a significant discrepancy with YY's reported revenue.
• Legal and Regulatory Context:
  • The reports are not offers to sell or buy any securities.
  • The research is not attributable to any Muddy Waters Related Person, except the applicable Muddy Waters Entity.
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Conclusion

Muddy Waters Research concludes that YY and its subsidiaries are involved in extensive fraudulent activities. The report highlights the use of bots, fake users, and round-tripping to inflate revenue figures, suggesting that the company's financial statements are unreliable. The findings are based on a combination of macro data analysis, sampling, and undercover fieldwork, and are intended to inform investors of the potential risks associated with the company's financial reporting.