20170123-大华银行-FX_lnsights_12页_1mb

FX Insights Summary

Core Content

This document provides a detailed analysis of foreign exchange (FX) pairs and market outlooks for the week of 23 January 2017. It includes key levels for support and resistance, current price levels, and short-term and medium-term outlooks for various currencies. The analysis is based on recent market movements, economic data, and upcoming events, with a focus on the USD/SGD pair as the main subject.

Main Points

USD/SGD: 1.4220

• Outlook: Neutral
• Immediate Bias: Downward pressure towards 1.4150
• Support: S1: 1.4150, S2: 1.4080
• Resistance: R1: 1.4280, R2: 1.4310
• Key Events: Chinese Lunar New Year holidays, December CPI data, and 4Q16 industrial production data
• Comment: A clear break below 1.4150 may signal a deeper down-move towards 1.4080, possibly 1.4000.

EUR/SGD: 1.5225

• Outlook: Neutral
• Immediate Bias: Sideways trading between 1.5180 and 1.5260
• Support: S1: 1.5180, S2: 1.5140
• Resistance: R1: 1.5270, R2: 1.5310
• Key Events: ECB President Draghi speech, Eurozone manufacturing and services PMI, Germany IFO reading
• Comment: A clear break above 1.5270 would indicate the end of the current consolidation phase.

GBP/SGD: 1.7595

• Outlook: Neutral
• Immediate Bias: Positive with potential to extend to 1.7670
• Support: S1: 1.7525, S2: 1.7450
• Resistance: R1: 1.7630, R2: 1.7670
• Key Events: UK GDP data, BoE Governor Carney speech
• Comment: A move below 1.7450 would indicate a weakening of the positive trend.

AUD/SGD: 1.0740

• Outlook: Bullish
• Immediate Bias: Consolidation between 1.0710 and 1.0790
• Support: S1: 1.0710, S2: 1.0690
• Resistance: R1: 1.0790, R2: 1.0830
• Key Events: Australian CPI data, 4Q GDP data
• Comment: A break above 1.0800 would signal a potential move towards 1.0830.

JPY/SGD: 1.2475

• Outlook: Neutral
• Immediate Bias: Consolidation within a 1.2360/1.2600 range
• Support: S1: 1.2400, S2: 1.2360
• Resistance: R1: 1.2510, R2: 1.2550
• Key Events: Japanese CPI data
• Comment: The immediate bias is upward, but a clear break below 1.2340 could indicate a resumption of the bearish phase.

USD/MYR: 4.4450

• Outlook: Bearish
• Immediate Target: 4.4200
• Support: S1: 4.4300, S2: 4.4200
• Resistance: R1: 4.4570, R2: 4.4700
• Comment: The pair is expected to stay under pressure, with a break above 4.4700 indicating a reversal of the bearish bias.

USD/THB: 35.31

• Outlook: Neutral
• Immediate Range: 35.20/35.55
• Support: S1: 35.20
• Resistance: R1: 35.47, R2: 35.55
• Comment: A clear break below 35.20 could indicate a resumption of the bearish phase.

USD/CNH: 6.8270

• Outlook: Neutral
• Immediate Range: 6.7830/35
• Support: S1: 6.7830, S2: 6.7500
• Resistance: R1: 6.8555, R2: 6.8710
• Comment: USD has room to move lower to retest the recent low near 6.7830/35 unless a break above 6.8710 occurs.

CNH/SGD: 0.2081

• Outlook: Neutral
• Immediate Range: 0.2070/0.2097
• Support: S1: 0.2070
• Resistance: R1: 0.2093, R2: 0.2097
• Comment: The pair is expected to trade in a broad range, with a downward bias unless a strong upward move occurs.

EUR/USD: 1.0720

• Outlook: Neutral
• Immediate Bias: Sideways trading between 1.0670 and 1.0765
• Support: S1: 1.0670, S2: 1.0640
• Resistance: R1: 1.0765, R2: 1.0820
• Comment: A move above 1.0765 would shift focus towards 1.0820.

GBP/USD: 1.2385

• Outlook: Neutral
• Immediate Bias: Positive with potential to extend to 1.2480
• Support: S1: 1.2330, S2: 1.2260
• Resistance: R1: 1.2450, R2: 1.2480
• Comment: A clear break above 1.2480 would signal a stronger upward trend.

AUD/USD: 0.7565

• Outlook: Bullish
• Immediate Bias: Sideways between 0.7530 and 0.7600
• Support: S1: 0.7530, S2: 0.7490
• Resistance: R1: 0.7630, R2: 0.7680
• Comment: A move above 0.7630 would indicate a shift in the bullish phase.

NZD/USD: 0.7185

• Outlook: Bullish
• Immediate Bias: Consolidation towards 0.7250
• Support: S1: 0.7155, S2: 0.7130
• Resistance: R1: 0.7250, R2: 0.7300
• Comment: A clear break above 0.7250 would shift focus towards 0.7300.

USD/JPY: 113.85

• Outlook: Neutral
• Immediate Bias: Downward pressure towards 113.00
• Support: S1: 113.50, S2: 112.55
• Resistance: R1: 114.45, R2: 115.00
• Comment: A clear break below 113.50 could signal a move towards 112.55/60.

Key Information

• The USD/SGD pair is under immediate downward pressure, with support at 1.4150 and resistance at 1.4280.
• The EUR/SGD pair is expected to trade sideways in the 1.5180 to 1.5260 range.
• The GBP/SGD pair has potential to extend its rebound towards 1.7670.
• The AUD/SGD pair is in a consolidation phase, with support at 1.0710 and resistance at 1.0790.
• The USD/THB and USD/MYR pairs are under bearish pressure, with targets at 35.20 and 4.4200 respectively.
• The USD/CNH pair is expected to retest the recent low near 6.7830/35.
• The EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs are expected to trade in a neutral range, with potential for upward moves.
• The NZD/USD pair is in a bullish phase, with a focus on 0.7250 as a key level.

Outlook

• The upcoming week is expected to be quiet in terms of major economic data, with focus on the US and global policy announcements.
• The USD is expected to remain under pressure unless it can move above key resistance levels.
• The EUR and GBP are seen as having positive momentum, with potential for further gains.
• The AUD and NZD are in consolidation phases, with the AUD showing a bullish outlook.
• The JPY and CNH are expected to trade within their respective consolidation ranges.

Upcoming Central Bank Meetings

• The FOMC meeting is scheduled for 31 January, marking the start of the "blackout week".
• The ECB will have a speech by Mario Draghi on 19 January, but no policy changes are expected.
• The Bank of England is expected to have a meeting on 2 February.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia and New Zealand will have meetings in February and March respectively.
• The Bank of Japan is expected to release its Outlook Report on 31 January and 20 February.