战略与国际研究中心-Commentary_-Ukraine-Seeks-its-Way-After-the-Rada-Elections_2页_115kb

Ukraine Seeks its Way after the Rada Elections

Core Content

On March 26, 2006, Ukraine held parliamentary elections, resulting in a 450-member Rada. Four months later, the composition of the majority coalition and the selection of the next prime minister remain uncertain, creating a political stalemate.

Main Parties and Results

• Tymoshenko Bloc: Won 129 seats
• Our Ukraine: Won 81 seats
• Socialists: Won 33 seats
• Regions Party (Yanukovych): Won 186 seats
• Communists: Won 21 seats

The election results mirrored the split seen in the 2004 presidential race, where Victor Yushchenko (Orange Revolution) defeated Victor Yanukovych.

Political Dynamics

• Yushchenko's Position: As the president, Yushchenko has the authority to choose the prime minister, but the formation of a majority coalition is still pending.
• Coalition Options: Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party could either:
  • Form an "Orange" coalition with Tymoshenko bloc and Socialists
  • Join a "broad" coalition with the Regions Party, Socialists, and Communists
• Tymoshenko and Yanukovych Rivalry: The strong opposition between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych complicates coalition-building.

Key Events

• July 6 Defection: Socialist leader Oleksandr Moroz defected to the Regions Party, forming a majority coalition with Yanukovych and the Communists. This coalition immediately proposed Yanukovych as prime minister.
• Yushchenko's Dilemma: Yushchenko has not yet confirmed Yanukovych as prime minister and is considering his options. His deadline for submitting the name is August 2.
• Potential Outcomes:
  • Early Elections: Yushchenko may call for early parliamentary elections, but this could weaken Our Ukraine's position.
  • Broad Coalition: Joining the Regions Party, Socialists, and Communists could give Our Ukraine more influence in the cabinet, though it would mean supporting Yanukovych as prime minister.
  • Opposition with Tymoshenko Bloc: Remaining in opposition with the Tymoshenko bloc aligns with Our Ukraine's core supporters, but it may limit the party's ability to shape policy effectively.

Strategic Considerations

• Policy Alignment: Our Ukraine and the Regions Party share common ground on economic issues, making a coalition possible.
• Leadership Preferences: Our Ukraine wants to avoid Yanukovych as prime minister, though Yanukovych initially showed openness to alternative candidates.
• Opposition Role: If Our Ukraine joins the Tymoshenko bloc, it may find itself in a weaker position due to Yushchenko's continued influence in the executive branch.

Implications

• Political Stalemate: The delayed decision on the prime minister has led to a political impasse.
• Economic Impact: Foreign investors are hesitant to commit due to the uncertainty surrounding the new government and its policies.
• Legislative Deadlock: Ukraine has not advanced legislation to align its trade regime with WTO rules in the past four months.

Conclusion

Yushchenko is faced with a difficult decision that could significantly impact Ukraine's political and economic future. His options have become less appealing since the March elections, and the prolonged uncertainty is affecting investor confidence and legislative progress. A timely resolution is essential to stabilize the country's governance and attract foreign investment.